I've been on the Rays in the first two games of the World Series and I'm not changing up now. My reasoning is simple: the Dodgers are better, but the gap between these two teams isn't nearly as large as the odds suggest. In what's going to be a low-scoring affair, I'm putting my trust in the Tampa bullpen to help me get the win often enough to make this price worth it.

Charlie Morton was 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA in the regular season but he is 3-0 with a 0.57 ERA this postseason. He has only allowed one earned run in 15.2 IP this postseason. He faced the Dodgers twice in the 2017 World Series and allowed two earned runs in 10.1 IP, including four innings with one run allowed in Game 7. He also faced Dodgers in 2010 and 2015. Walker Buehler was 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA in the regular season and he is 1-0 with a 2.44 ERA in the postseason. Walker Buehler is coming off easily his best postseason performance this season in Game 6 pitching six scoreless innings. Most importantly, he did not allow a walk which was a big issue with the blister he has been dealing with. He has not allowed more than two runs in any of his four 2020 postseason starts and he has never faced the Rays. I would be a little worried about the blister affecting Buehler’s breaking pitches at this value, take the value in Morton.

Walker Buehler's xFIP during the regular season and playoffs is 3.93 and 3.30, respectively. Charlie Morton's is 4.10 and 3.82. Those numbers do not put either pitcher in the top 20. In the 12 games that the Dodgers have played at Globe Life Field the median total runs is 10. The L.A. lineup is the best in baseball; it takes only one big inning to get the total Over. The Rays find ways to grind out runs but have also shown some home run power in the playoffs. Take the Over.