Cubs starter Yu Darvish hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts, but lefty Madison Bumgarner and the Giants are on too much of a roll to go against them. The Giants are having fun and coming up clutch, and they've won four of Bumgarner's last five starts. He has allowed just five earned runs combined in that span. The Giants have won nine of their last 10 games and are chasing a wild-card berth. Take the Giants to win Tuesday.

Madison Bumgarner is 5-7 with a 3.65 ERA this season and he is 3-2 with a 3.30 ERA at home. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his last five starts and he has a 1.13 ERA in July. Yu Darvish is 3-4 with a 4.46 ERA and he has thrown consecutive six inning shutouts, but both those games were at home. Despite the Cubs in first place in the division, they are a miserable 18-28 on the road while the Giants are 9-1 in their last 10.

The positive park shift will certainly help Yu Darvish, but this is still a great price for the Giants with Bumgarner on the mound. I have the Giants winning 54 percent of simulations at home against Darvish and the Cubs. Bumgarner has the edge with Vic Carapazza callimg the balls and strikes tonight in San Francisco.

The Giants are on a 16-3 run after another dramatic comeback win, and I'll back them again at this modest price. Madison Bumgarner is 9-2 with a 2.17 ERA in 13 career starts versus the Cubbies.

The Cubs have been a road underdog just 25 times this season, but they're 7-18 in those games. The Giants have won Madison Bumgarner's last five home starts, while the Cubs have won just one of Yu Darvish's last five road starts. The Giants win nearly two-thirds of my computer simulations, so the price they're at here is a steal.