The Rockies' Jon Gray has above average stuff, evident by his 9.32 strikeouts per 9.0 innings. If he pitched for the Padres, Rays or Dodgers his ERA would be well below 3.00, but pitching your home games in Denver has a negative effect on that number. Gray has been extremely unlucky in 2019, with batted balls in play successful at a 31 percent clip, well above the league average of 26 percent. The Blue Jays' Marcus Stroman has consistently been between 3.90 and 4.10 xFIP the last three years. His ERA of 2.74 shows he has been very lucky so far in 2019. Coors Field will not be as kind. My model has the Rockies winning 66 percent of the time.