Is the wrong team a slight favorite in this Ligue 1 match Sunday? Perhaps as Lyon is two spots and four points higher in the table than AS Monaco. It also won the reverse fixture 3-1 on Jan. 3. But I get it as the visitors -- behind Team USA's Falorin Balogun -- are rolling and the hosts are winless in five in all competitions -- but four of those were draws and all we want here. They have yet to lose a league match at home in 2026 with two total goals conceded.

Big one from Ligue 1 regarding next season's European football with Rennes sitting sixth, two points up on seventh-place Lille. The Red and Blacks haven't dropped a point since installing Franck Haise as manager. They look to sweep both top-flight matches vs. Lille in the same campaign for the first time since 2017-18 thanks to a 2-0 road win on Jan. 3. Lille could be a bit gassed having just played a Europa League match Thursday.

Angers sits 11th in Ligue 1 and Nice 15th so, again, I'm not really sure why the home team is the dog. There don't appear to be any major player issues for Angers -- which kept its fifth home clean sheet of the domestic season last time out and tries for consecutive league shutouts for a third time. Nice has a single win in the past 15 league fixtures and has been blanked in three straight matches in all competitions. Angers won the reverse fixture 1-0 in December on a Yassin Belkhdim 33rd-minute goal.

I knew it would come to this eventually on my favorite soccer/footy play regarding Draw No Bet. What's the number limit? Moneyline -200? Heck no. But getting the draw looped in? I think this is reasonable and probably should be in the -270 range. Lorient (that is really fun to say for some reason) is 15 points ahead of Auxerre in the Ligue 1 table .That's not everything but not nothing. In college basketball, although this is a terrible metaphor since I haven't gotten one of those right in weeks, we love backing a team to avoid a conference sweep. Kinda same here. Lorient lost 1-0 at Auxerre in the season opener. You know, same drill. I doubt this loses but may push.

Thank goodness for soccer since can't get a hoops game correct to save my life at the moment -- "Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi. You're my only hope." One thing the European leagues do right is boot terrible teams. Adam Silver said a bunch of mumbo-jumbo about fixing NBA tanking. Yeah sure. Obviously relegation will never happen. It should. I mention as both these clubs are in that zone in Ligue 1. I believe they go to the Sacré Bleu/Pink Panther league if so, but I don't speak French. Home dog all this is. Need a reason not to play such. I don't do them all certainly. But basically even clubs. Auxerre has not won a league road game, outscored 17-4. Under 2.5 looks solid too.

Nantes is one of the worst clubs in Ligue 1 and has scored the third-fewest goals with 19. If Les Canaris hold the hosts to two goals, then I think we are absolutely golden. Our model has the final at 1.7-1.1 in favor of Monaco, which is about mid-table in goals scored. Les Rouges et Blancs are unbeaten in three straight domestically and not allowed a goal. Another clean sheet would mark the longest run for the team since 2021. Hey, 3-0 works. Four times this season, Nantes has been blanked away. I am aware the first meeting saw a whopping eight goals scored.

We have six accessible books if not aware, and I honestly don't know why those six or how it works but they are: DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, BetRivers (that's the only one that delivers the excellent -1/-1 NHL options and hoping same for MLB) and Bet365. This is the lone of the sextet with a number of 3.5 and not 2.5. Sometimes, the books are telling me what to play via outlier number. Why you should ALWAYS shop around.

I mean you see the price and I hate all things Mets or Metz -- the fighting Darryl Strawberries are dead last in the Ligue 1 and absolutely should lose here. But short of, I dunno, Kendall Jenner (ick) as the starting goalkeeper I'm pretty much gonna take +1.5 in a domestic match. Our model has Lille 1.7-1.1, and I expect and shall root for a one-goal win.

Is PSG the better team? Of course, but there is no question that Strasbourg, having recently undergone a managerial change (very unique circumstances involving Chelsea), is playing better of late, unbeaten in eight. Le Racing has scored 12 goals in the past three and has gotten at least a point in the past two in this series (drew in October). I would not play +0.5 as some of our books have but I feel pretty solid that this will at worst push.

I went to look at playing Brest as a home dog with only four points separating the sides in the Ligue 1 table but leading scorer Romain Del Castillo (six goals) is suspended. For the visitors, co-leading scorer Frank Magri (five goals) is apparently out or at least not starting and forward Emersonn (three goals) is suspended.

Big match in Ligue 1 with Lens sitting second in the table and Marseille third -- usually, big matches as such see better defense. So I'm told. Lens has allowed a league-low 13 goals in 18 matches and Marseille is fourth with 19 given up. Four of the past five in the series, including in October, have seen three or fewer goals scored.

We cashed PSG Under this number last Friday at Lille in a 3-0 win and I'll probably play any Under 3.5s on the defending Ligue 1 champions away if given the number. At home maybe not. PSG has scored the second-most goals in the league but allowed the second-fewest. Auxerre (pics of that town look lovely) is last in Ligue 1 with 14 goals in 18 matches. So basically if it scores, we might be in some trouble. Our model has this 2-1 and that works.

These struggling clubs are separated by only a point in the Ligue 1 table near the relegation zone. Paris FC appears to have a lot more player availability questions. Nantes has looked like a different club since the calendar turned with a win over Marseille and a regulation draw vs. Nice (lost on PK in the Couple de France). Potential trap game for sure for Paris FC after stunning PSG on Monday in the Coupe de France. But in the league, Paris FC is winless in six. Nantes won at Paris FC, 2-1, in October.

Angers has not lost a match by more than a goal since Oct. 5. The hosts have been off a week to get healthy and prepare, while a quicker turnaround for Marseille after rolling in the Coupe de France on Tuesday. In six of eight Ligue 1 home games this season, Angers has conceded a goal or fewer, collecting three clean sheets. Roberto De Zerbi will be without two of his defensive lieutenants for tonight’s fixture. The visitors are without key defenders Benjamin Pavard and Nayef Aguerd. In October, the sides played to a 2-2 draw and that's all we want here.

This likely depends on whether PSG allows a goal or not, although our model has this at 1.8-1.3. The Parisians are atop in Ligue 1 in goals but also second in goals allowed. When the teams played in October, it was a 1-1 draw. Lille will be without captain Benjamin André.