Is PSG the better team? Of course, but there is no question that Strasbourg, having recently undergone a managerial change (very unique circumstances involving Chelsea), is playing better of late, unbeaten in eight. Le Racing has scored 12 goals in the past three and has gotten at least a point in the past two in this series (drew in October). I would not play +0.5 as some of our books have but I feel pretty solid that this will at worst push.
I went to look at playing Brest as a home dog with only four points separating the sides in the Ligue 1 table but leading scorer Romain Del Castillo (six goals) is suspended. For the visitors, co-leading scorer Frank Magri (five goals) is apparently out or at least not starting and forward Emersonn (three goals) is suspended.
Big match in Ligue 1 with Lens sitting second in the table and Marseille third -- usually, big matches as such see better defense. So I'm told. Lens has allowed a league-low 13 goals in 18 matches and Marseille is fourth with 19 given up. Four of the past five in the series, including in October, have seen three or fewer goals scored.
We cashed PSG Under this number last Friday at Lille in a 3-0 win and I'll probably play any Under 3.5s on the defending Ligue 1 champions away if given the number. At home maybe not. PSG has scored the second-most goals in the league but allowed the second-fewest. Auxerre (pics of that town look lovely) is last in Ligue 1 with 14 goals in 18 matches. So basically if it scores, we might be in some trouble. Our model has this 2-1 and that works.
These struggling clubs are separated by only a point in the Ligue 1 table near the relegation zone. Paris FC appears to have a lot more player availability questions. Nantes has looked like a different club since the calendar turned with a win over Marseille and a regulation draw vs. Nice (lost on PK in the Couple de France). Potential trap game for sure for Paris FC after stunning PSG on Monday in the Coupe de France. But in the league, Paris FC is winless in six. Nantes won at Paris FC, 2-1, in October.
Angers has not lost a match by more than a goal since Oct. 5. The hosts have been off a week to get healthy and prepare, while a quicker turnaround for Marseille after rolling in the Coupe de France on Tuesday. In six of eight Ligue 1 home games this season, Angers has conceded a goal or fewer, collecting three clean sheets. Roberto De Zerbi will be without two of his defensive lieutenants for tonight’s fixture. The visitors are without key defenders Benjamin Pavard and Nayef Aguerd. In October, the sides played to a 2-2 draw and that's all we want here.
This likely depends on whether PSG allows a goal or not, although our model has this at 1.8-1.3. The Parisians are atop in Ligue 1 in goals but also second in goals allowed. When the teams played in October, it was a 1-1 draw. Lille will be without captain Benjamin André.
The two clubs will meet as neighbors for the first time as Paris FC is literally playing next door these days to PSG. Their adjacent stadiums are separated by the width of the Rue Claude Farrere, the road that runs between them. It's the first top-division derby between the Parisian outfits since 1978. PSG should certainly win but Paris FC has only lost twice this year by more than two goals. So really that's all I am looking for is a two-goal loss.
So I'll just be honest here. All of our other books have Toulouse getting the +, but BetRivers is an outlier. And that's something I always like to do. I get it, it's a marketing ploy to be different. And as you can see, it's a bit juiced so it may not be there much longer. But I also think a gift. I have no interest without the +. Sometimes you have to pick at near 6 a.m. to get the right numbers with the Andy Griffith Show in the background. I don't much like that show but it sure seems to be on a lot at 6 a.m. ET. I usually just waited for to end so I could see Jeannie next.
Just a fabulous Saturday of soccer; wish I remembered what I put in the proverbial Wheaties this morning. I actually don't much like cereal. About the only dude in college not eating it 24/7. That's where I met my true love: Ramen. Kinda surprised Le Harve is the home dog with the struggling clubs separated by only a point in the Ligue 1 table. Didier Digard’s side (what a French name) has picked up at least a point in five of its past six home matches. Paris FC is winless in three straight and has allowed the third-most goals in the league. Each of the past two in the series ended in scoreless draws, although when they were in Ligue 2.
AS Monaco is the better team, sitting 7th in Ligue 1 and Brest 11th. Do they have trap games/matches in soccer? Of course they do. Friday feels like one for Monaco after upsetting PSG last time out. But that was at home and Monaco is winless in its past two away. It has a couple guys suspended and Team USA star Folarin Balogun is out injured. Brest had been hovering near the bottom of the table due to a six-match winless run between October and mid-November but enters off B2B wins, scoring five total goals, and with at least a point in three of four. Les Pirates have at least a point in four of their previous five at Stade Francis-Le Ble.
Was only playing this at +1 as our other books all are offering +0.5. And it may well push. I am obviously no Wile E. Coyote super-genius on soccer (yet) but even I know all about PSG. This would seem to be the home game of the season for Monaco and I'm hopeful for a bit of a letdown via the visitors. Ousmane Dembélé came back from injury in their victory against Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League on Wednesday. Nuno Mendes was injured in that and out today. Les Monégasques (I thought maybe meant Monkees like the band/show but no; don't know French) will get Team USA star Folarin Balogun back after his ban against Stade Rennes in the last domestic match. Half unit.
Only two points separate these sides in Ligue 1 and Monaco has a ton of player availability questions even out of the break. It was ripped in its final pre-break game, 4-1 at home, and is in danger of three straight domestic losses for the first time since losing the final three matches in the 2022-23 Ligue 1 campaign. Team USA star Falorin Balogun plays for Monaco but is suspended for this match, for an example. Rennes is unbeaten in its past three and has just one home loss this season. Esteban Lepaul (the American in me almost typed DePaul) is tied for second in Ligue 1 with eight goals.
I actually looked at an AirBNB in Strasbourg a few years back. Alas, COVID got in the way. I just imagine great beer and sauerkraut, which I strangely love as an otherwise picky eater. Although I think I thought this was Germany so what do I know. Strasbourg is unbeaten in three straight at home, but per usual I don't care who wins. Give us a draw. Few knocks -- yes, I came across knocks on a UK site and I like it -- on the visitors and one suspension. Guess I don't get why we are getting the + on the home side. But I don't speak French so ...
Did you really think I'd let Buckets have the Euro soccer Friday to himself? We don't even let that dude near a candle. I'm totally joking, I've never met Jon but I can't think of a more fun guy to have a Guinness with and watch soccer. I ask his opinion occasionally. And the also-excellent Martin Green. We have world-class soccer cappers, best in the biz. Me? Rookie and never bet a French game that didn't involve the World Cup. I just assume they drink wine and eat brie at intermission. I'd like to tell you more but it took me long enough to decipher French on the Ligue 1 site -- something about a Louvre robbery (find that utterly fascinating BTW).