This is the beauty of Draw No Bet. I obviously lean the home side but they are dead even in the Ligue 1 table with Troyes, so a draw is a draw and I can live with that. I was not aware Troy could be pluralized so that's a fun new fact today (yeah it's a city name I know). The visitors have a handful of guys out and have been routed in back-to-back matches.

My favorite Black Mirror episode is probably "San Junipero" because I miss the 80s. Jean jackets. Thompson Twins. Galaga. I don't know why, but AS Monaco makes me think of the 80s. Perhaps that old-school Atari soccer or racing game? (Atari rocked). This honestly seems a pretty reasonable DNB number considering the hosts are atop the Ligue 1 table with 10 points and Lens is mid-near bottom with four points. Some of these Euro soccer sites are crazy with XGP and other numbers I really don't understand. I am old school with the eye test, although I am not stupid and the analytics generally agree. Models about 75% not a loss. And in DNB, that's all I want is a massive majority to not.

Marseille is generally the better team in Ligue 1 but was gutted in the summer transfer window and enters off back-to-back losses. One could argue the visitors might be looking ahead a bit to their next two matches: In the Europa League and then the home match of the season against PSG. Former team captain Valentin Rongier now plays for Rennes, which is one of six French clubs yet to lose and drew against powerhouse PSG. It ranks second in the league in goals with seven led by three from Esteban Lepaul (great name). Les Rouge et Noirs have taken three of the past four at home in this series. They don't have a single player out for injury. Marseille has a couple.

You can go to multiple sports information sites and see layers of odds listed on a certain game, but boy do the books know how to get me. This is an outlier number among our six (it might be an alt). The other five have 2.5, but juiced to the Over. Obviously 3 is the sweet spot in soccer totals. Auxerre is pretty short-handed so I'd expect something like 2-0 or 2-1 for the hosts. Just please not 3-1. Our model has 2.9 goals scored and ChatGPT gives this a 72% shot of hitting (I'm totally addicted to ChatGPT now; it told me the formula for New Coke like via periodic table). Four of the past five in the series have landed Under this number.

Allow myself to take bigger numbers on Draw No Bet because as I have said, I consider it two wagers and of the three possible outcomes, there's only one that can beat me. I try to use circular logic like that in life really. If two of three things are: stay the same/get better then I do it. If not, I don't. Basically call it the "rule of two-thirds." Pretty simple mantra. I kinda doubt that Auxerre loses at home to Angers, and that would anger me. But I'm guessing that town doesn't phonetically sound like that. I aim to take a train through France one day drinking wine and there is a murder I must solve on said train. Ideally not my own.

Lyon is battling for a Champions League spot next season and probably needs a win to get it sitting fourth in Ligue 1, a point behind Lille and two up on Rennais. So a draw might be enough, too, but the guys won't know that with all matches being played simultaneously on the final day. Lyon has only lost three of its 16 Ligue 1 home fixtures, winning 12. Lyon has allowed just 14 total goals in those 16 matches. Wish Draw No Bet was reasonable but it's around -340. Lens is second and won't move from that spot win or lose, so not a heck of a lot of motivation.

Ding, ding! Outlier number. Certainly guarantees nothing but yep. All of our other books have 2.5 -- probably an alternate. I don't really know how or why things flow into our system. But we can't get alts quite yet normally. This time of year, sometimes teams are kinda in "not-care" mode but both these clubs have reason to do so: Marseille for possible European qualification and Nantes to avoid being relegated. Although in France, I'm guessing even being relegated is awesome and comes with a wine and cheese platter by a river. Marseille won the reverse fixture 2-0 in early January and none of the past five in the series have topped 3 goals. If I start to get soccer alts may do damage ...

When I get an outlier number on any sport, I go investigate. This is our only number at less than -1 on Marseille (a few even have -1.5) so yep. Obviously I think only a draw beats us, but the hosts are 23 points better in the Ligue 1 table and playing for European qualification. Nice is playing not bad lately but also on a short week after beating Strasbourg on Wednesday in the Coupe de France semifinals. So a letdown game too.

Our only book with 3.5 for this Ligue 1 matchup, and Marseille is without domestic leading goalscorer Mason Greenwood (15 goals) due to injury. Monaco is without a few guys as well but no one as significant. It lost the reverse fixture, 1-0 in December with Greenwood scoring the only goal in the 82nd minute.

Is the wrong team a slight favorite in this Ligue 1 match Sunday? Perhaps as Lyon is two spots and four points higher in the table than AS Monaco. It also won the reverse fixture 3-1 on Jan. 3. But I get it as the visitors -- behind Team USA's Falorin Balogun -- are rolling and the hosts are winless in five in all competitions -- but four of those were draws and all we want here. They have yet to lose a league match at home in 2026 with two total goals conceded.

Big one from Ligue 1 regarding next season's European football with Rennes sitting sixth, two points up on seventh-place Lille. The Red and Blacks haven't dropped a point since installing Franck Haise as manager. They look to sweep both top-flight matches vs. Lille in the same campaign for the first time since 2017-18 thanks to a 2-0 road win on Jan. 3. Lille could be a bit gassed having just played a Europa League match Thursday.

Angers sits 11th in Ligue 1 and Nice 15th so, again, I'm not really sure why the home team is the dog. There don't appear to be any major player issues for Angers -- which kept its fifth home clean sheet of the domestic season last time out and tries for consecutive league shutouts for a third time. Nice has a single win in the past 15 league fixtures and has been blanked in three straight matches in all competitions. Angers won the reverse fixture 1-0 in December on a Yassin Belkhdim 33rd-minute goal.

I knew it would come to this eventually on my favorite soccer/footy play regarding Draw No Bet. What's the number limit? Moneyline -200? Heck no. But getting the draw looped in? I think this is reasonable and probably should be in the -270 range. Lorient (that is really fun to say for some reason) is 15 points ahead of Auxerre in the Ligue 1 table .That's not everything but not nothing. In college basketball, although this is a terrible metaphor since I haven't gotten one of those right in weeks, we love backing a team to avoid a conference sweep. Kinda same here. Lorient lost 1-0 at Auxerre in the season opener. You know, same drill. I doubt this loses but may push.

Thank goodness for soccer since can't get a hoops game correct to save my life at the moment -- "Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi. You're my only hope." One thing the European leagues do right is boot terrible teams. Adam Silver said a bunch of mumbo-jumbo about fixing NBA tanking. Yeah sure. Obviously relegation will never happen. It should. I mention as both these clubs are in that zone in Ligue 1. I believe they go to the Sacré Bleu/Pink Panther league if so, but I don't speak French. Home dog all this is. Need a reason not to play such. I don't do them all certainly. But basically even clubs. Auxerre has not won a league road game, outscored 17-4. Under 2.5 looks solid too.

Nantes is one of the worst clubs in Ligue 1 and has scored the third-fewest goals with 19. If Les Canaris hold the hosts to two goals, then I think we are absolutely golden. Our model has the final at 1.7-1.1 in favor of Monaco, which is about mid-table in goals scored. Les Rouges et Blancs are unbeaten in three straight domestically and not allowed a goal. Another clean sheet would mark the longest run for the team since 2021. Hey, 3-0 works. Four times this season, Nantes has been blanked away. I am aware the first meeting saw a whopping eight goals scored.