A trip to the American League Division series is on the line when the Boston Red Sox meet the New York Yankees in Game 3 of their Wild Card Series on Thursday. Boston won the opener 3-1, before New York earned a 4-3 victory on Wednesday. The Red Sox (89-73), who finished third in the AL East, are 42-41 on the road, including the postseason. The Yankees (94-68), who were second in the division, are 51-32 on their home field in 2025.

First pitch from Yankee Stadium in New York is set for 6:08 p.m. ET. The Red Sox have won 10 of 15 against the Yankees this season. New York is a -159 favorite on the money line (risk $159 to win $100) in the latest Red Sox vs. Yankees odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Red Sox as +133 underdogs. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 7.5 in the latest MLB odds. 

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The model has simulated Red Sox vs. Yankees 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is going Over on the run total, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value!

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