A pair of red-hot teams battle when the New York Yankees take on the Cleveland Guardians in a key American League matchup on Monday night. The Yankees (14-8), who are first in the AL East, have won six of their past seven games. The Guardians (12-9), who are second in the AL Central, have won three in a row and are 5-1 on their home field in 2025.
First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. New York is a -127 favorite on the money line (risk $127 to win $100) in the latest Yankees vs. Guardians odds via SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 8.5.
Before making any Yankees vs. Guardians picks or MLB predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 4 of the 2025 MLB season on an 8-3 run on top-rated money-line picks (+340). Anybody following could have seen strong returns!
The model knows right-hander Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 4.76 ERA) is expected to get the start for New York. In his first start this season in a 4-3 win over the Kansas City Royals, he pitched 5.2 innings, allowing four hits, three runs—all earned—with two walks and two strikeouts. He started 16 games for the Yankees a year ago, going 5-5 with a 2.85 ERA. In four career starts against the Guardians, Schmidt is 3-1 with a 3.52 ERA.
The model also knows Cleveland will counter with right-hander Gavin Williams (1-1, 4.58 ERA). In four starts this season, he has allowed 16 hits, 10 earned runs and 10 walks, with 18 strikeouts in 19.2 innings. In a 6-1 win over the Chicago White Sox on April 10, he pitched five innings, allowing three hits, one earned run and two walks with seven strikeouts. In one career start against the Yankees, he is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA.
The model has simulated Yankees vs. Guardians 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the run total, and it also says one side has ALL the value!
Who wins Yankees vs. Guardians, and which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the money line you should be all over, all from the model on an 8-3 run on top-rated MLB picks!
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Written by Daniel Kohn
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