Why the Packers are a strong Super Bowl value pick
SportsLine's Adam Thompson breaks down the odds to win Super Bowl 53, buying or selling on each of the 32 squads.
Training camps haven't opened yet, so the top goal for every NFL team should be to win the Super Bowl, right?
That said, the Arizona Cardinals likely won't be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy next winter. But are the team's odds to win it all worth a flyer?
SportsLine's Adam Thompson has broken down the odds for each team to win the Super Bowl, which ones present value at the current price and which to avoid.Â
Super Bowl odds, provided by the Westgate LV SuperBook, are updated weekly at SportsLine..Â
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1
Pick: No team has lowers expectations from Vegas than these Cardinals, who are tied for the worst odds to win it all, and have the lowest Over/Under number for wins. Sam Bradford's now a placeholder for Josh Rosen, the defense is potentially a huge mess, and it's hard to imagine a memorable playoff run in what appears to be Year 1 of a total rebuild.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1
Pick: The Falcons underachieved last year, and now I'm afraid there's too much competition in the NFC, including in their own division, to take them at 16/1. They can beat anyone at home, however.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1
Pick: The Ravens got weapons for Joe Flacco to throw to, and the defense should be strong once again. This doesn't strike me as a Super Bowl-winning team, but with the Steelers perhaps vulnerable and the rest of the AFC North an afterthought, maybe the Ravens become this year's Jaguars and make a surprising run. At 50/1 it's worth a shot.
BUFFALO BILLS
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1
Pick: The Bills' defense should be solid, and LeSean McCoy is still in the house. But the QB situation isn't a good one, plus I think the Jets improved more in the off-season and are a better bet to make a surprising run from the AFC East.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1
Pick: They're the No. 3 choice in the NFC South behind the Falcons and Saints, and with far higher odds. But if Cam Newton can get back to doing what made Cam Newton great, and they use Christian McCaffrey the way Christian McCaffrey can be used, the Panthers are right there with those other two teams. And this price is a very good one.
CHICAGO BEARS
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1
Pick: The Bears had a good off-season, and Mitchell Trubisky will presumably be better in Year 2. But it's hard to imagine them finishing anywhere other than last in the NFC North. If all things go right, they challenge the Lions for third. But it's not a playoff team yet, and not a good bet even at this high price.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1
Pick: The Bengals were an abomination last year, in large part due to the terrible play of Andy Dalton and a last-ranked offense. But Dalton was a Pro Bowl QB just two years ago, A.J. Green is a seven-time Pro Bowler, the running back situation was young but should be better. Despite all those issues, the team still went 7-9. Turning it around could mean a playoff team at a very low price. All that said, Marvin Lewis has taken better teams and done less, so there's always a risk with Cincy.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1
Pick: I'd love to jump on the Browns and ride Sam Bradford and a young defense to glory, but there are other 80/1 teams to like more. If/when Cleveland figures it out in 2018, it'll likely be out of the playoff hunt. The future is brighter than the present.
DALLAS COWBOYS
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1
Pick: You're putting a lot of faith in Dak Prescott getting it done, but the Cowboys battled through a lot of distractions/suspensions last year to win nine games. Frankly, I think this year's team is just as good, probably better. The NFC is loaded with landmines, but this is a fair price for Dallas.
DENVER BRONCOS
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1
Pick: The Broncos had one of the NFL's top defenses and had offensive pieces last year, but the quarterback play sabotaged the season. Now they got a new QB, but they had to jettison key talent for salary cap purposes. A Case Keenum-Devontae Booker tandem doesn't excite me enough at 40/1.
DETROIT LIONS
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1
Pick: The Lions may be improved from a year ago, but not enough to think they're on an even line with the Vikings or the Packers. Or the Eagles, Rams or the top teams from the NFC South -- including the Panthers at the same price. I'm selling and not looking back.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1
Pick: Aaron Rodgers has shown the ability to lead lesser teams to great lengths, and with a revamped defense -- the D has been a huge letdown the last several playoff runs -- Green Bay is maybe a notch below Philly and Minnesota, but it's a small notch. Taking the Packers at 14/1 is sound value.Â
HOUSTON TEXANS
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1
Pick: There are a lot of x-factors with the Texans, starting with the QB. If Deshaun Watson picks up where he left off, and J.J. Watt and the defense can remain healthy, this is an AFC South contender and will challenge anyone in the playoffs. It's worth a flyer at this price.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1
Pick: Andrew Luck is back -- we think -- but there were a lot of holes to fill and many of them were not addressed this off-season. Who knows what Luck will do after so much time away from the game. It's not worth any price to take a team so unlikely to reach the playoffs.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1
Pick: The Jaguars were 80/1 last year before shocking the NFL world with a run to the AFC championship game. An encore is in the works, led by a rock-solid defense and powerful ground game. Blake Bortles proved he can be a winner when surrounded by talent. Can he be a Super Bowl champion? It's not a bad price to take a flyer.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1
Pick: The Chiefs saw enough in Patrick Mahomes to trade away Alex Smith. But we're talking about winning it all here. At 23, he'd be the second-youngest QB to win a Super Bowl, and the youngest, Ben Roethlisberger, was in his second complete season as a starter and had an amazing defense (which was good, because Big Ben was not good in the actual Super Bowl). I'm not ready to commit to KC at this price. But I might in 2019.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1
Pick: The Chargers were my darkhorse pick back when they were 25/1, but I still like them at the number here. The defense will be tough, and with the ball in the hands of Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon, the offense should be able to enough to get into the playoffs and surprise a team or two. Going to New England in January might be an issue, however.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1
Pick: I think the Rams are one year away from the start of a possible dynasty -- especially if they can keep Aaron Donald in the fold. That said, the Eagles and Vikings are a step ahead right now, and the Packers are right there. I'd like the Rams more if they were in the 14/1 range.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1
Pick: Ryan Tannehill is back, but what does that mean, anyway? He led Miami to an 8-5 mark in 2016 before missing the rest of that year and all of 2017 with injury, and was never better than 8-8 prior to it. Even if he's as better than ever, there isn't enough around him to suggest a possible playoff run. I'll pass here.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1
Pick: The Vikings have no discernable weakness, though the O-line could be boom or bust. Perhaps it takes a few weeks for Kirk Cousins and Delvin Cook to get going, but this will be a very tough team down the stretch. Minnesota is worthy to be right with Philly at 10/1.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Super Bowl Odds: 6/1
Pick: The Pats have been too good for too long to go against. And actually, 6/1 is about as high as odds as we've seen on this team -- last year around this time New England was at 3/1. I'll take it.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1
Pick: The Saints were one ridiculous Hail Mary at Minnesota away from beating the Vikings in the playoffs, and from there, victories over the Eagles and Patriots weren't out of the question. Now they're back and a young team should be better. While they could lose out to both Atlanta and Carolina in the NFC South, I see a lot of value for New Orleans at this price. It's worth a risk.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1
Pick: Sadly, I just don't see enough improvement from last year, and I'm not sure Eli Manning can do it for a third time. Perhaps the Giants sneak into the playoffs, but that likely means being better than the Eagles or Cowboys, and I'm not sure I can jump on that bandwagon yet.
NEW YORK JETS
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1
Pick: OK, who knows what to make of the QB situation in Jetsland. But everything else about the team got better in the off-season, and I like Sam Darnold to eventually take over this team -- so much so that I give the Jets outside shot of making the playoffs. Getting any playoff-possible team at 80/1 is a steal.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1
Pick: The Raiders made headlines by signing Jon Gruden to a mega-contract to get Oakland back to its winning ways. But for this year, I'm not sure they don't end up in last place in a rugged AFC West. I'm not touching Oakland at this price.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1
Pick: There's value here, in that the Eagles won the Super Bowl last year without their QB who was having a MVP-type season. Now he's back. Competition will be tougher with the emergence of the Rams and Vikings, especially, but not enough has changed on this roster to consider them, at the least, the NFC favorite.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1
Pick: I love Ben Roethlisberger's game and the receivers he'll throw to, and the defense looks good. But this is an aging bunch and we still don't know where Le'Veon Bell will be, or what his mindset will be. Plus, there will be considerable competition. I'm still thinking it's a playoff team, but 10/1 is a little low for now.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1
Pick: This team was winless before Jimmy Garoppolo took over late in the year. The Niners looked like a completely different team, but now opponents will be ready. The NFC West may be down and the 49ers are trending upward for sure, but the NFC as a whole has way too many good teams to take them at this price.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1
Pick: It's foolish to completely count out a Russell Wilson-led team, but salary cap issues decimated this team in the off-season and they may not be done with the dismantling. There's not enough there anymore to expect a playoff run.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1
Pick: The Bucs have struggled to get enough help for Jameis Winston, and the quest will continue because it's not there yet. In a brutal NFC West, it's hard to pick 2018 as the year Tampa turns a corner and makes a deep playoff run. Pass on any odds.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1
Pick: There's not much to dislike about the Titans, and yet I find myself backing off from them at this price. It would be a good value pick at 35/1, but I'd rather back the Jaguars or Chiefs at slightly higher prices here.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1
Pick: The Redskins finished 7-9 last year but one year later have the worst odds of any team to win it all? The defense should be better with a focus on run-stopping. That said, I don't think the offense has anywhere near the weapons needed for Alex Smith to be successful. I don't think they'll be the worst team in the NFL, but I also don't think a playoff berth is a reality.
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