Week 8 NFL betting power ratings for against the spread picks: Patriots, Packers, Buccaneers sliding

We're seven weeks into the NFL season, which means we know everything we need to about the quality of all 32 teams. For example, we can now definitively say the Bears and Panthers are way better than the Patriots and Buccaneers, respectively, after the former pair of teams embarrassed their opponents in Week 7.

Okay, you know I'm pulling your leg. I still have both Chicago and Carolina near the bottom of my power ratings, because you don't want to make massive adjustments based on one week of results. But teams like the Buccaneers, Packers and Colts that we thought were pretty good before the season continue to move down the board. Things have gotten so bad in Green Bay that Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog in a primetime game, and nobody thinks it's weird.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Raiders are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Chargers are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Vikings may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Saints are a -1 or -2 team (or even worse).

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Vikings should be favored by two points against the Raiders on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here. I updated the HFA numbers of a few teams in my weekly workbook after six weeks with a better understanding of which teams are good and bad, and which fan bases are likely to be more engaged than previously anticipated (looking at you, New York).

I've dived into each Week 8 game and evaluated my Week 8 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 8? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 8 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!