Week 7 NFL power ratings: How to value all 32 teams, including Jaguars without Trevor Lawrence, for ATS picks

If you thought injuries were bad in the first five weeks of the 2023 NFL season, wait until you get a load of Week 6. Four starting QBs suffered injuries on Sunday, with Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo failing to make it through the full 60 minutes. Chuck in the backups who are already starting, whether due to short- or long-term injuries to the starters and eight of the 28 teams that played on Sunday ended the day without their intended Week 1 starter. Joe Burrow is suddenly one of the healthier quarterbacks in the league!

All the injuries, not just to quarterbacks but to crucial players at other positions like Christian McCaffrey and Justin Jefferson, have made it tougher to gauge the true value of a team against the spread on a weekly basis, but that's what we're here to do. The most interesting situation comes in Jacksonville, with Lawrence's status for Thursday's game against the Saints uncertain. While the Jaguars opened as short favorites for the game, the news that Lawrence is dealing with a knee sprain that could force him to sit moved the line to Saints -3 as of Monday afternoon. Is that the right move?

In SportsLine's weekly QB Power Rankings from Mike Tierney, I share what my adjustments to the spread for each quarterback would be in the event of an injury, and you'll find a very big number next to Lawrence's name. The drop from him to C.J. Beathard is massive, but it's important to note that the drop from healthy Lawrence to the version of Lawrence that would suit up on Thursday if he's ruled in still requires a significant downgrade. I've adjusted Jacksonville's rating below to account for a 50% effective Lawrence, and that puts my projected spread for the game at Saints -3, lining up with the market's initial read. However, anyone with the SportsLine app who is subscribed to notifications for my picks knows that we locked in Saints -1 before the reports of Lawrence's status surfaced and got ahead of the line move.

Even if you missed out on that line value, you can use the information below to see where I believe each spread should be and then make your plays throughout the week as news develops, especially if you keep the QB adjustments from the Power Rankings article in mind as well. Or you can just subscribe for my picks when I believe it's time to move on a line.

If you need a refresher on how to build spread power ratings, why they're important for beating the market and how successful I've been with this system at SportsLine, check out the Week 1 version of these power ratings. You can also check out SportsLine on Sunday afternoons as I give my initial power ratings adjustments for each team to get ahead of the market openers before diving in fully for this Tuesday feature. Otherwise, we'll jump right in.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 7? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 7 power ratings from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!