Week 7 NFL betting power ratings for against the spread picks: Cowboys, Dolphins back in top 10 with QBs back

The Cowboys and Dolphins have had to deal with quarterback injuries for several weeks, with differing levels of success. Dallas ran off a string of wins behind Cooper Rush before finally falling to the division rivals in Week 6. The Dolphins entered Week 4 with a 3-0 record but started Tua Tagovailoa on a Thursday night coming off a potential concussion and have had to play multiple quarterbacks in every game since.

The good news for both teams is that both of their QB1s are expected to return in Week 7. Tagovailoa has already been announced as the Week 7 starter after clearing concussion protocol over the weekend, and Teddy Bridgewater will be locked in as the backup as the top of the QB depth chart returns to normal in Miami. The Cowboys haven't officially installed Dak Prescott as the Week 7 starter yet, but he's expected to return to practice on Wednesday with an eye toward starting against the Lions.

With both quarterbacks back under center, I've moved both the Cowboys and Dolphins up my power ratings to make them tied with the Bengals as the seventh-best team in the league. If Tagovailoa and Prescott immediately jump back into rhythm and lead their teams to decisive wins, Miami and Dallas could rise in the power ratings even further.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Raiders are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Chargers are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Vikings may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Saints are a -1 or -2 team (or even worse).

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Vikings should be favored by two points against the Raiders on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here. I updated the HFA numbers of a few teams in my weekly workbook after six weeks with a better understanding of which teams are good and bad, and which fan bases are likely to be more engaged than previously anticipated (looking at you, New York/New York).

I've dived into each Week 7 game and evaluated my Week 7 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 7? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 7 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!