loading...
League Logo
NBA
League Logo
NBA
League Logo
MLB
League Logo
NHL
All
    loading...

    Week 4 NFL betting power ratings for against the spread picks: Chargers nosedive as Eagles, Dolphins 3-0

    We rate all 32 NFL teams in order to project what the spreads should be for every Week 4 game.
    Hero Image

    Last week, we highlighted the Eagles and Dolphins in this space as being cemented as top-10 teams. One week later, they are the only 3-0 teams remaining after the Eagles took care of business yet again and the Dolphins pulled off the upset over the Bills. One of those teams has moved up in the ratings, but not the other, which we'll get into below.

    One team that took a significant drop in my power ratings is the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert probably shouldn't have played this past week, and until he looks close to 100%, I'm not sure this is any better than an average team. And that might be generous after more injuries to key players last week, including losing star left tackle Rashawn Slater for the season. For now, I've given the Chargers a zero rating as a dead average team along with four other AFC squads, including one that made a massive jump in my power ratings this week.

    What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Chargers are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Vikings are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Rams may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Saints are a -1 or -2 team with the state of their offense.

    After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Rams should be favored by two points against the Chargers on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here.

    I've dived into each Week 4 game and evaluated my Week 4 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

    Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 4? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 4 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!

    GET VEGAS EXPERT PICKS FOR NFL, MLB, NBA, CBB, GOLF, NHL, HORSE RACING AND MORE - PLUS ADVANCED COMPUTER SIMULATIONS, WINNING TOOLS, AND MORE!

    JOIN NOW
    R.J. WhiteSuper Stat Geek

    Share This Story