Week 2 NFL betting power ratings for against the spread picks: Bills, Chiefs cream of the crop; Cowboys plummet

One of my favorite plays in Week 1 was the Dolphins laying the points against the Patriots, especially while it was still only a 2.5-point spread. Even after the line moved to Dolphins -3.5, it was still one of my favorite plays of the week, because my power ratings projected the Dolphins to be six-point favorites.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Saints are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Vikings are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Dolphins may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Browns are a -1 or -2 team with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Dolphins should be favored by two points against the Saints on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here.

I've dived into each Week 1 game and evaluated my Week 1 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted, and it's key to note that not every team needs to be adjusted. After all, Week 2 has long been Overreaction Week in the NFL; I may be a little guilty of it below, but I didn't move any team that didn't lose its starting quarterback more than two points, and 75% of the teams in the league didn't move more than a half-point. Trust your preseason evaluations more than 60 minutes of football, unless you see something that's fundamentally different under the hood.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 2? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 2 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!