Week 12 NFL betting power ratings for against the spread picks: 49ers, Cowboys approaching top tier

For much of the season, the Eagles looked like they might run away with the NFC, putting up win after win as other supposed contenders like the Packers, Rams and Buccaneers faltered. Then the Eagles came close to going 0-2 over the last two weeks. I'm not prepared to drop them from the top tier yet, though there are a few other NFC teams emerging as challengers to potentially take the crown as the conference's top team.

The 49ers had zero difficulty dispatching the Cardinals on a neutral field in Mexico City on Monday, a win they might not get credit for due to Arizona's record and starting quarterback coming into the game. The Arizona offense had been playing better since DeAndre Hopkins' return, and Colt McCoy proved against the Rams that he can lead the offense effectively, yet the 49ers made that team look like the Texans. The San Francisco defense can stop the run and smother the pass, while the 49ers offense has Jimmy Garoppolo throwing four touchdowns while leaning on a devastating 1-2 punch at running back. They're going to be tough to beat.

The Cowboys may be unbeatable if they consistently play to the level they showed in a drubbing of the formerly 8-1 Vikings last week. Dak Prescott looks in complete control of the offense, and Tony Pollard is forcing his way into the majority of touches the running back position. The Dallas defense can get after the quarterback as well as anyone, and it feels like it's going to take a team with an elite offense line to put away the Cowboys in January. I have them just behind the 49ers in my power ratings, but I bumped both teams up one full point after their performances this week.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Saints are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Chargers are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Buccaneers may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Packers are a -1 or -2 team (or even worse).

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Buccaneers should be favored by two points against the Saints on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here. I updated the HFA numbers of a few teams in my weekly workbook after six weeks with a better understanding of which teams are good and bad, and which fan bases are likely to be more engaged than previously anticipated (looking at you, New York).

I've dived into each Week 12 game and evaluated my Week 12 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 12? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 12 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!