Week 11 NFL power ratings: How to value all 32 teams, including Cardinals with Kyler Murray, for ATS picks

Kyler Murray made his long-awaited season debut on Sunday and immediately provided a spark for the Cardinals offense, which averaged just 1.2 yards per play the previous week with rookie Clayton Tune at quarterback. Facing the Browns defense on the road is obviously a different beast than facing the Falcons defense at home, but Atlanta ranks in the top 10 in yards per play on defense, so it's not like this projected to be a pushover matchup for Murray, especially not knowing how much mobility he would show in his first game back.

Turns out, Murray is still very good at football. The Cardinals averaged 5.9 yards per play, with Murray rushing for 33 yards and a touchdown on six carries and James Conner's return also providing a boost to the run game. Murray also showed immediate report with emerging tight end Trey McBride, who had the best tight end performance by a Cardinal in decades.

But don't let the performance of the Cardinals defense get lost in Murray's debut. Jonathan Gannon brings a defensive background to the team, and they're now up to a respectable 20th in yards per play after shutting down the Falcons pass offense to the tune of 2.9 net yards per play. The previous week, they largely shut down the Browns run game despite trailing for three quarters. Before that, they held a great Ravens offense to 4.5 yards per play.

With Murray looking fully healthy and the defense trending upwards, I don't see the Cardinals as anywhere near a basement-level team. In fact, I'd take them straight up on a neutral field against 10 teams right now and I'd make the line a pick 'em against a few others. They'll face a surprisingly tough test this week when they head to Houston to face a Texans team that has one of the best passing offenses in the league, but it's certainly a matchup in which they can hang around and win a higher-scoring game. I have that line projected at Texans -4, so I'm mostly in agreement with the market at this point of the week.

If you need a refresher on how to build spread power ratings, why they're important for beating the market and how successful I've been with this system at SportsLine, check out the Week 1 version of these power ratings. You can also check out SportsLine on Sunday afternoons as I give my initial power ratings adjustments for each team to get ahead of the market openers before diving in fully for this Tuesday feature. Otherwise, we'll jump right in.

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