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    Week 11 NFL betting power ratings for against the spread picks: Chiefs take top spot as Bills slide

    We rate all 32 NFL teams in order to project what the spreads should be for every Week 11 game.
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    It's Week 11, and for the first time all season the Buffalo Bills aren't even tied for first in my weekly power ratings. Buffalo's loss at home to the Vikings in overtime seems highly improbable when you stack up all the things that had to go wrong for the Bills -- from Justin Jefferson's miracle catch on fourth-and-18 to the botched snap that resulted in a Minnesota touchdown -- to lose that game, but nonetheless, it's two straight losses for the Bills with added uncertainty around Josh Allen after a second game of questionable decision-making and a late health scare.

    Now in sole possession of the No. 1 slot is the team I had tied with the Bills for one week earlier in the year: the Kansas City Chiefs. The Jaguars managed to steal possessions left and right in that game, starting with an onside kick to open the game, yet the Chiefs still jumped out to a 20-0 lead in the second quarter and held on for the cover. Patrick Mahomes is likely leading the MVP race thanks to Tua Tagovailoa missing time earlier in the season, and the Chiefs are in the driver's seat for the top seed in the AFC. I'd make them favorites on a neutral field against any team in the league right now, and that's why they sit atop my power ratings for Week 11.

    What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Seahawks are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Chargers are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Vikings may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Cardinals are a -1 or -2 team (or even worse).

    After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Vikings should be favored by two points against the Seahawks on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here. I updated the HFA numbers of a few teams in my weekly workbook after six weeks with a better understanding of which teams are good and bad, and which fan bases are likely to be more engaged than previously anticipated (looking at you, New York).

    I've dived into each Week 11 game and evaluated my Week 10 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

    Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 11? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 11 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!

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    R.J. WhiteSuper Stat Geek

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