Virginia Tech Hokies-Pittsburgh Panthers Picks Against the Spread
Vegas handicapper Preston Johnson, aka the Sports Cheetah, breaks down the Virginia Tech-Pittsburgh betting line and shares his recommendation.
No. 25 Virginia Tech (5-2, 3-1 ACC) tries to stay on track for the Coastal Division title when it visits Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-1) in a Thursday night spotlight game.
Slight road favorites, the Hokies will battle a rested Pittsburgh team that has beaten them in each of their four visits to Heinz Field. In fact, the Panthers have won six of the past seven meetings and are 8-1 against the spread in the past nine matchups.
Pitt won three straight before its Week 8 bye, with QB Nathan Peterman benefitting from a ground game that ranks second in the ACC (239.1 ypg).
Hokies QB Jerod Evans enters on a tear; he's thrown 19 TDs against two INTs and paces the ACC in passer efficiency. He should have a field day against a Panthers defense allowing 298.9 passing yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst nationally.
The Over has cashed in six straight Pittsburgh games, but the Under is 6-0 in Virginia Tech's last six road games.
SPORTS CHEETAH'S TAKE
The Hokies responded to their loss to Syracuse with a decisive 37-16 home win over Miami last Thursday. Now they visit a Pitt team coming off its bye.
Where Virginia Tech was most impressive against Miami was in the run game. The Hokies held the Hurricanes to 42 rushing yards on 29 attempts (1.4 per carry) and gained 251 on the ground themselves. The Hokies rank 5th in the country against the run, and the Panthers rely heavily on their ground attack, which also ranks in the top 20 nationally.
Of the teams in the country that don't run the option, Pitt actually ranks 2nd behind only San Diego State in run play percentage (69.23 percent).
So which is going to give? I think the strengths for each team will ultimately balance out, and the true edge will come in the Hokies' passing game. Pitt ranks 125th of 128 teams against the pass. The Hokies, on the other hand, are the 13th-most efficient team through the air.
I anticipate VT will limit the Pitt rushing attack and take advantage on offense, picking apart a Panthers' secondary with big issues.
The number is a tad high now at 4.5 and it doesn't help the Hokies that Pitt had extra time to prepare, but the Xs and Os point directly to a Virginia Tech win. If this comes down some and I can get a -3 or better later in the week, I'll be looking to back the road team.
LINE MOVEMENT
The line opened at Hokies -3.5 and is back where it started.
"We've only seen a tiny bit of professional action on this matchup," said Scott Cooley, odds consultant for BookMaker.eu. "The spread peaked at -5 on Monday, and since then we've seen a steady dose of dog money. I'm expecting this to close at -3 or -4, just not sure which."
The game is drawing fairly even action. Per SportsInsights, 53 percent of the tickets are on Virginia Tech.
LAST WEEK
The Hokies whipped visiting Miami, 37-16, easily covering as 4.5-point favorites. Virginia Tech is 4-3 ATS overall, 1-2 ATS on the road.
The Panthers were off last week after their 45-31 win over Virginia. Pitt has won all four of its home games but covered none.
SELECTION
