Vermont vs. UMBC odds, prediction: 2026 America East Championship picks from proven model

The 2026 America East Tournament concludes on Saturday with a championship matchup between top-seeded UMBC and No. 2 seed Vermont.

Tipoff from the Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore is at 11 a.m. ET. The Retrievers are 3.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 136.5. Before making any UMBC vs. Vermont picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on an 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated this matchup 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time!

So who wins Vermont vs. UMBC, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!