VCU vs. UNC odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The 11th-seeded VCU Rams face the sixth-seeded UNC Tar Heels in the first round of the NCAA Tournament South Region on Thursday. VCU is coming off a 72-60 win over Dayton in the Atlantic-10 Conference tournament championship game on March 15, while UNC lost to Clemson 80-79 in the ACC Tournament on March 13th. The Rams (27-7) have won 16 of their last 17 games under first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr. The Tar Heels (24-8), who have lost two straight, placed fourth in the ACC at 12-6 in league play. The Tar Heels will be without star freshman forward Caleb Wilson, who is out for the season following surgery for a broken thumb. They have turned to Henri Veesaar, who is averaging 16.7 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in Wilson's absence. 

Tip-off from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina, is set for 6:50 p.m. ET on March 19. This is the first match-up between the two schools ever. UNC is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest VCU vs. UNC odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 153.5. Before making any UNC vs. VCU picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated VCU vs. UNC 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time!

So who wins VCU vs. UNC, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!