Utah State vs. Villanova odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The ninth-seeded Utah State Aggies face the eighth-seeded Villanova Wildcats in the first round of the NCAA Tournament West Region on Friday. Utah State is coming off a 73-62 win over San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game on Saturday. Villanova, meanwhile, dropped a 78-64 decision to Georgetown in the quarterfinals of the Big East Conference Tournament on March 12. The Aggies (28-6), who have won four in a row, won the Mountain West regular-season title at 15-5. The Wildcats (24-8), who have won two of their last three games, finished 15-5 and in third place in the Big East standings.

Tip-off from Viejas Arena in San Diego is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Utah State leads the all-time series 1-0, posting a 73-72 win in 1960. Utah State is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Utah State vs. Villanova odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 147.5. 

Before making any Utah State vs. Villanova picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Utah State vs. Villanova 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations!

So who wins Utah State vs. Villanova, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!