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Updated NFL Win Projections For Every Team

With a vast majority of offseason moves done, OTAs in the books and training camp right around the corner, here's an updated look at the exact regular-season win total projections for each NFL team.

By@Daniel_LewisSLUpdated: Nov 06, 2017 2:57PM UTC . 9 min read

 

With virtually every off-season transaction -- including late free-agency acquisitions such as Eric Decker going to the Titans and Jeremy Maclin joining the Baltimore -- now in the books, NFL teams are now turning their attention to training camp, which gets underway in less than a month.

The draft and free agency have shifted regular-season projections across the board. Here's a look at the latest projections from Vegas and the SportsLine Projection Model: 

The first win total reflects the current Over/Under from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, while the second comes from our projection model that simulated the NFL regular season 10,000 times. 

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8 wins
SportsLine Projection: 8.8 wins

David Johnson is one of the top touchdown-producing machines in the league, but does 37-year old Carson Palmer have enough in the tank to get the Cards over these numbers?

ATLANTA FALCONS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 9.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 9.5 wins

The offense has more than enough firepower to hit these marks, but questions remain on defense. Some offseason investments in that area make Atlanta a great bet to hit double-digit wins again this season.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 9 wins
SportsLine Projection: 9.2 wins

Jeremy Maclin was a great late-offseason addition that gives the offense a bit more pop. The defense again looks to be top-10 caliber.

BUFFALO BILLS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 6.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 7.4 wins

There's some firepower on offense -- especially in the run game. How quickly Sean McDermott can fix a mediocre defense could be the deciding factor in this year's win total for the Bills.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 9 wins
SportsLine Projection: 8.8 wins

Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel were great picks that should give an offense that became a bit stagnant last season more life. With the talent they have on defense, the Panthers must get back at least into the top 15 in total defense after finishing No. 21 last year.

CHICAGO BEARS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 5.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 4.8 wins

Running back Jordan Howard is one of the best young players in the league that nobody is talking about. But questions -- major ones -- at quarterback, and a defense that doesn't look dominant should keep the Bears out of contention.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 9.2 wins

Key injuries slowed Cincinnati's attack in 2016. The Bengals added offensive help in the draft, giving them the firepower they'll need in what could be a make-or-break year for Marvin Lewis.

CLEVELAND BROWNS 

Westgate LV SuperBook: 4.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 4.6 wins

Armed with plenty of cap room and a plethora of picks, the Browns got better this offseason, particularly on the offensive line and on defense. There's still no clear-cut answer at quarterback, however, leaving this team at least a year or two away from even thinking about climbing out of the cellar. 

DALLAS COWBOYS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 9.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 9.3 wins

Dallas certainly has the talent on offense to get back to double-digit wins. But a loaded division, some questions on defense and a new target on their backs should make this season a tougher road for Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Co. 

DENVER BRONCOS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8 wins
SportsLine Projection: 8.3 wins

The defense is still potentially championship caliber, but unless Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch can be a breakout player at quarterback, it'll be tough to top last year's nine-win mark.

DETROIT LIONS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 7.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 6.9 wins

A tough early schedule, along with playing in the same division as Aaron Rodgers and the Vikings' elite defense, puts a cap on Detroit's win potential. But Jim Caldwell has guided the Lions to the playoffs twice in the past three years, and Matthew Stafford is coming off arguably his best year.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 10.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 10.7 wins

Martellus Bennett gives Rodgers the legitimate threat at tight end he's been lacking. There are some questions at running back and on defense, but it's tough to bet against No. 12 until he gives us reason to.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 8.1 wins

It's a matter of when, not if, Deshaun Watson takes over under center in Houston. Can he develop quick enough to lead a potentially dangerous offense that could compliment the NFL's top-ranked defense from last year?

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 7.6 wins

The Colts invested heavily on defense this offseason to build a more well-rounded roster to help Andrew Luck out. There's potential here, but for now the Colts look to be more middle of the pack in the AFC South.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 6.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 7.4 wins

The defense, on paper, has a chance to make the Jags competitive. There are pieces to like on offense, but Blake Bortles must be more consistent when it matters. Don't let his garbage-time numbers from last year fool you.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 9 wins
SportsLine Projection: 9.3 wins

With four consecutive winning seasons and three playoff appearances during that span, the Chiefs have been one of the NFL's most consistent franchises. The offense will look different without Jamaal Charles and Jeremy Maclin, but there's still enough there to get to at least nine wins -- probably more.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 7.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 6.9 wins

A new city likely won't bump the win total much. The Chargers improved on the O-line and at receiver, but the defense didn't get many upgrades after ranking near the bottom last year.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 6 wins
SportsLine Projection: 5.2 wins

The defense should keep the Rams in games, but Jared Goff must be much better than he showed in his opportunities as a rookie. 

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 7.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 7.0 wins

The Dolphins won't catch teams by surprise this year, but they might not have to. The Dolphins made shrewd offseason moves -- signing Lawrence Timmons in free agency and investing heavily in defense during the draft. 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 8.5 wins

It's tough to put total faith in Sam Bradford, but the addition of Dalvin Cook makes the offense intriguing. The defense should be very good once again.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 12.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 12.3 wins

Assuming this isn't the year that Father Time catches up with Tom Brady, the Pats should stack up a ton of wins again. The offense has a chance to be even better than last year, and the defense remains top-10 caliber.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8 wins
SportsLine Projection: 7.9 wins

Entering the final year of his contract, Drew Brees should have enough offensive help to keep the Saints competitive. But the defense could cost them a playoff berth, considering New Orleans must face Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston twice each.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 8.1 wins

With Brandon Marshall and first-round pick Evan Engram arriving, Eli Manning has one of the best receiving groups in the league. Most of the key pieces are back from a top-10 defense as well. It's a tough division, but 10 or more wins feels very possible. 

NEW YORK JETS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 4.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 4.8 wins

The defense will keep the Jets from being embarrassed, but an offense totally void of playmakers will make it nearly impossible to pile up many wins.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 9.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 8.6 wins

Sharing the division with the Chiefs and Broncos cuts into the Raiders' potential win total, but don't let that distract you from this team's potential. If Derek Carr can bounce back from injury and Marshawn Lynch is anywhere close to his Seattle form, the Raiders can put together another 12-win season.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8 wins
SportsLine Projection: 8.1 wins

Despite Carson Wentz tailing off late, Philly was pleased with his rookie season. Now he has Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith to throw to. The Eagles' pass rush got more dangerous and they're better equipped to compete in the loaded NFC East.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 10.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 9.9 wins

Few, if any, can match Pittsburgh's overall firepower on offense. There are options everywhere on that side of the ball. The defense, in particular the secondary, could keep the Steelers from being elite, but getting to 10 wins still feels very feasible.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 6.2 wins

The new regime made some nice moves this offseason, but there's still no great answer at quarterback. Maybe the 49ers move out of the cellar of the NFC West, but don't expect a lot more yet.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 10.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 10.1 wins

Despite offseason rumblings about Richard Sherman, the Seahawks held steady and return the nucleus of the team that's made the last five postseasons. They remain a good bet to get to at least 10 wins in the shaky NFC West.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8 wins
SportsLine Projection: 6.9 wins

The Bucs can be as good as anybody offensively. The defense will need to be better to pile up wins in a more competitive NFC South, but these win totals feel a bit low. It wouldn't be stunning to see the Bucs go over last year's total of nine.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 8.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 8.2 wins

The Titans established a physical identity on offense last year. This offseason was all about finding more playmakers to help Marcus Mariota, while also upgrading the secondary. Tennessee is a trendy pick to win the AFC South.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Westgate LV SuperBook: 7.5 wins
SportsLine Projection: 7.7 wins

Kirk Cousins is back, but with Terrelle Pryor out wide instead of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. They made some nice defensive additions, but a regression from last year's 8-7-1 campaign feels very possible.

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