UFC Fight Night odds, picks, predictions: MMA model reveals projections for Strickland vs. Hernandez, fight card for Saturday

After a week off, UFC returns on Saturday and heads to Houston for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez. The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from the Toyota Center, and the main event will feature a middleweight bout between a pair of top 5 contenders. No. 3 Sean Strickland (29-7) will face No. 4 Anthony Hernandez (15-2) as part of a six-fight main card. Hernandez is the -285 favorite in the latest UFC odds, while Strickland is the +230 underdog to utilize in UFC Fight Night bets.

The co-main event for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez is a welterweight contest between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic. Despite losing three of his last four bouts, Neal is -205 favorite as the Austin native looks to win in his home state. The lone heavyweight bout on the entire UFC Fight Night card features Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija (-148).

Before locking in any UFC picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure's proven computer model.

McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+ , hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!

One of the model's top UFC Fight Night picks: It is backing Over 1.5 rounds (+4.2% edge) in the co-main event of Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic, which returns +153. "The defensive metrics and pacing profiles suggest exchanges will be more measured early which increases the chance the fight extends," McClure said.

The model is also targeting several underdogs, as well as a best bet that returns over +500! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC Fight Night picks!

Who wins Strickland vs. Hernandez, and which other fighters do you need to back with UFC predictions? ... Join SportsLine now to see which fighters you need to be all over on Saturday, all from the model that showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25!