T.J. Watt injury odds fallout: Steelers' playoff chances dip by 15 percent via SportsLine Projection Model if Watt misses season
The Pittsburgh Steelers are awaiting word on the injury status of star linebacker TJ Watt.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were upset winners in Cincinnati on Sunday – don't even get me started about blocked PATs – but the victory was a costly one. All-Pro linebacker T.J. Watt, the 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, reportedly suffered a torn pectoral muscle that might cost him the season. If that's the case -- and we should get word later today -- the SportsLine Projection Model downgrades Pittsburgh's playoff chances by about 15%.
Watt entered Week 1 as the +700 co-favorite to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year, but DraftKings already has shifted him to +3000, presuming he's going to miss time. Watt was injured while he was pass-rushing on a play with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter. He has led the NFL in sacks and tackles for losses for two consecutive seasons. Watt had 22.5 sacks (tying Michael Strahan for the NFL record) and 21 tackles for losses during his 2021 DPOY year and had a sack (another wiped out by penalty), an interception and three tackles on Sunday.
A torn pec, depending on its severity, typically has a recovery time ranging from several weeks to several months. Pro Football Talk is reporting the team is still hoping it's only a partial tear, which would allow Watt to return at some point this year. Malik Reed would replace Watt in the starting lineup.
How important is Watt to the Steelers? They are 0-4 all-time without the four-time All-Pro. In the two games he missed last year, the Steelers lost 24-10 to Cincinnati and 41-37 against the Chargers. In the four games he has missed, opposing offenses have converted on third down 46.8% of the time. With Watt in the lineup, the Steelers are 52-24-2 and teams convert on third down 40.2% of the time.
One Pittsburgh website's headline today: "The season is over if T.J. Watt is out long-term." The Steelers are currently +1 at home for Week 2 vs. the Patriots, who may not have starting QB Mac Jones. He injured his back in Sunday's loss to Miami. Brian Hoyer is his backup. The opening total of 41 points is the lowest on the board.
The SportsLine Projection Model drops the Pittsburgh playoff chances from 44.7% to 29.4% without Watt. That latter number equates to about +240 on the money line. DraftKings is listing the Steelers at +350 to make the playoffs and -450 to miss.
| PITTSBURGH | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ TJ Watt | 8.9 | 52.40% | 24.30% | 44.70% | 3.30% | 1.50% |
| w/o TJ Watt | 8.1 | 47.60% | 14.40% | 29.40% | 0.80% | 0.30% |
| Difference | -0.8 | -4.70% | -9.90% | -15.30% | -2.50% | -1.20% |
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