Texas vs. Purdue odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The 11th-seeded Texas Longhorns battle the second-seeded Purdue Boilermakers in a Sweet 16 matchup of the NCAA Tournament West Region on Thursday. Texas advanced with a 74-68 win over Gonzaga in Saturday's second-round matchup, while Purdue defeated Miami (Fla.) 79-69 on Sunday. The Longhorns (21-14), who finished 10th in the Southeastern Conference at 9-9, have won three in a row. The Boilermakers (29-8), who tied for sixth in the Big Ten Conference at 13-7, have won six straight, including the Big Ten Conference Tournament title.

Tip-off from SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Texas leads the all-time series 4-2, but Purdue won the last meeting, an 81-71 decision in 2022. Purdue is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Texas vs. Purdue odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 148.5. Before making any Texas vs. Purdue picks, you NEED to see the basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Texas vs. Purdue 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of the simulations!

So who wins Texas vs. Purdue, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!