Texas vs. N.C. State odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The Texas Longhorns battle the North Carolina State Wolfpack in a First Four matchup in the West regional of the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday night. The winner will be the 11th seed and will face sixth-seeded BYU on Thursday. Texas is coming off a 76-66 loss to the Ole Miss Rebels in the SEC Tournament on Wednesday, while N.C. State dropped an 81-74 decision to Virginia on Thursday in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. The Longhorns (18-14), who finished in 10th place in the SEC, have lost five of their last six games. The Wolfpack (20-13), who tied for seventh in the ACC, have lost five of six.

Tip-off from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, is set for 9:15 p.m. ET. Texas leads the all-time series 4-2, including a 102-97 win on Nov. 26. Texas is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Texas vs. N.C. State odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 158.5. 

Before making any Texas vs. N.C. State picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Texas vs. N.C. State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time!

So who wins Texas vs. N.C. State, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!