Texans vs. Patriots line, odds: Proven model releases spread pick for 2026 NFL divisional round matchup on Sunday

A pair of red hot teams clash when the Houston Texans face the New England Patriots in an AFC divisional round matchup on Sunday. Fifth-seeded Houston is coming off a 30-6 win over fourth-seeded Pittsburgh 30-6 on Monday night, while second-seeded New England topped the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday in the Wild Card round. The Texans (12-5), who finished second in the AFC South, are 6-3 on the road this season. The Patriots (14-3), who won the AFC East, are 7-3 on their home field in 2025-26. Houston wide receiver Nico Collins (concussion) is out, which shifted the line half-a-point more in New England's favor. Pats CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion) is active after passing protocol.

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is set for 3 p.m. ET. The Patriots lead the all-time series 11-4, including 2-0 in the postseason. The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Texans vs. Patriots odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 40.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook. New England is at -176 of the money line, with Houston priced at +145

Before making any Texans vs. Patriots picks, you NEED to see which side the proven SportsLine projection model is on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL divisional round matchup on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following could have seen HUGE returns!

Now, the model has locked in another confident pick for Texans vs. Patriots.

We can tell you it's leaning Over the point total, but also says that one side of the spread is the better value! You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see which side to back before locking in any picks of your own.

So who wins Texans vs. Patriots in the 2026 NFL divisional round, and which side of the spread is the better value? ... Join SportsLine RIGHT NOW to see which side of the line to back, all from the model that has gone 53-37 on top-rated picks since 2024!