Texans vs. Eagles picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Thursday Night Football

This has the makings of a bloodbath. These two teams are going in decidedly different directions.

We could argue whether this is a let down spot for the Eagles on Thursday night, or the degree to which they would have to let down for the inept Texans to even be able to take advantage and make this a football game. Houston has been overrated on the gambling markets for weeks and a popular fade for me. But now we've reached the point where we are seeing a college football line for a primetime NFL football game.

So understandably, it gives me some pause.

I chatted about this game with Erik Kuselias during our SportsLine live betting show on CBSSportsHQ Monday night and was begging people who liked this game to get in while the number was 13, because it was invariably going to go up. And it has. Which complicates things for a road team on a short week that at some point will experience some regression in terms of results, luck, etc. But there are definitely aspects of this matchup that I very much like. And I expect several Eagles to feast, whether they end up winning by 12 or 17 or whatever.

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Spread: Eagles -14

I'm not really feeling this play. On a normal week I wouldn't flinch. But perhaps, maybe just maybe, the Texans rally a little and try to look like a professional football operation. Maybe they square up a little and show more spirit and fight. But then I think about the Eagles' dominant run game and how well Justin Fields is protecting the football, and about how many Texans veterans were hoping and praying they would get dealt to a real franchise by Tuesday's trade deadline. And I think about how the Eagles seize control of games in the second quarter every week – against far better opposition – and I look at the output and coaching staffs, and I lay the points here if I have to play it. Favorites of 11 points or more are 22-0 straight up and 18-4 against the spread on Thursday night (shoutout to Ryan and the awesome CBS research team for their amazing work every week). The Eagles have the No. 2 scoring offense and No. 3 scoring defense. I have to lean into that against such a pathetic opponent.

Total: Over 45

Would I be shocked if this ended up a push at this number, as it was on Monday night? No, I wouldn't. I keep seeing the Texans around 10-14 points and the Eagles in the 30s. The Texans rolled up 17 merely by playing rugby on Sunday and making no pretense about even throwing the football. Now they face arguably the most balanced attack in the NFL, with playmakers galore. I don't see them having the answers for this option run game in the red zone. Their defense is blah and predictable. They don't blitz. They don't get much pressure. I don't anticipate much resistance. Maybe the Texans do a little something in garbage time to run up the scoreboard -- like the Bengals Monday night -- and I'll consider a 34-13 scoreline or something like it.

Team Total: Texans Under 15.5

Now this is a play I really like. The Texans offense is a joke. Davis Mills is not an NFL starter and the one playmaker he has, Brandin Cooks, is in a weird place. Darius Slay will eliminate him even if he is up for the fight. The Eagles allow just a 51.8% completion percentage and Mills is facing a team with the lowest opposing passing rating in the NFL. Even once he is trailing big, how much scoring are they really going do? The Eagles have scored more points in the second quarter than the Texans have all season. Philly allows just 17 points a game and I believe they better that mark here. I expect the Eagles to force multiple turnovers to end the Texans' drives.

First Half Over 22.5

The Eagles average 21 points per game in the first half, and that's against better teams than this. Their plus-89 first-half scoring margin leads the NFL and they have scored 24 more points in the first half than any other team (despite already having their bye). The Texans have a -16 margin in the first half (22nd). They are dead last or close to it every rushing defense metric, and the Eagles can score quickly on the ground. The Texans have allowed just two passing touchdowns all season, but this will be a different test for them

Same-Game Parlay (+485)

• Jalen Hurts Anytime TD
• Jalen Hurts Over 42.5 Rushing Yards
• Davis Mills Longest Completion Under 33.5 Yards

Player Props

Davis Mills Longest Pass Under 33.5 Yards (-111)

Good luck pushing it downfield against this pas rush and this secondary. It's going to be dink-and-dunk city with a lot of running the football. The Eagles are sure tacklers, which cuts down in YAC potential. They won't let Cooks beat them deep. There's not much else to fear.

Jalen Hurts Over 42.5 Rushing Yards

There will be multiple runs over 10 yards, I figure, and ample opportunity to keep the ball in the RPO game and gash a defense that has no answers for it right now. Stacking the box ain't enough. The Texans have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards through seven games by any NFL team since 2000, and this won't be any easier than the Titans team that gouged them Sunday. This has moved a ton in the last 24 hours – could get it under 39 – and I'd act fast.

Ka'Ami Fairbairn Over 1.5 Field Goals (-103)

I see 3s and not 7s in Houston's future. I see a team that is beaten and desperate enough to keep trying field goals -- even when they really need TDs to get back into the game. This game is being played in a dome. Perfect conditions. And an overwhelmed offense. I'll take it. Both might end up being chip shots.

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