Tennessee vs. Virginia odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The sixth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers battle the third-seeded Virginia Cavaliers in the second round of the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region on Sunday. Tennessee is coming off a 78-56 win over Miami (Ohio) in Friday's first-round matchup, while Virginia defeated Wright State 82-73 that same day. The Volunteers (23-11), who tied for fourth in the Southeastern Conference, have won two of their last three games. The Cavaliers (30-5), who placed second in the Atlantic Coast Conference at 15-3, have won five of their last six games.

Tip-off from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. Virginia leads the all-time series 8-6, but Tennessee earned a 64-42 win last season. Tennessee is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Tennessee vs. Virginia odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 137.5. Before making any Tennessee vs. Virginia picks, you NEED to see the basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Tennessee vs. Virginia 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 60% of the simulations!

So who wins Tennessee vs. Virginia, and which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!