Tennessee vs. Iowa State odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The six-seeded Tennessee Volunteers battle the second-seeded Iowa State Cyclones in an NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Sweet 16 matchup on Friday. Tennessee is coming off a 79-72 win over Virginia on Sunday in the second round, while Iowa State defeated Kentucky 82-63 on Sunday. The Volunteers (24-11), who tied for fourth in the SEC at 11-7, have won two in a row. The Cyclones (29-7), who came in tied for third in the Big 12 Conference at 12-6, have also won two straight. 

Tip-off from the United Center in Chicago is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Tennessee leads the all-time series 2-1. Iowa State is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Tennessee vs. Iowa State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 138.5. Before making any Tennessee vs. Iowa State picks, you NEED to see the basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Tennessee vs. Iowa State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the simulations!

So who wins Tennessee vs. Iowa State, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!