Spurs vs. Thunder odds, line: Proven model reveals picks for NBA matchup on December 25

The San Antonio Spurs will look to win the season series against the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder when they meet in a key Western Conference matchup on Christmas Day. The Spurs defeated Oklahoma City 130-110 on Tuesday in San Antonio. The Spurs (22-7), who lead the Southwest Division, are 10-5 on the road this season. The Thunder (26-4), who lead the Northwest Division, are 14-0 on their home field.

Tip-off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 2:30 p.m. ET. The Spurs lead the all-time series 104-89, including both meetings this season. Oklahoma City is a 9.5-point favorite in the latest Spurs vs. Thunder odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 235.5.

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SportsLine's model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight seasons. The model enters Week 10 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 30-14 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is going Under on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations!

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