Tennessee has until Saturday to slap a franchise or transition tag on Tannehill, and if the team doesn't he could easily walk. However, SportsLine NFL oddsmakers list that Tannehill is the Titans' Week 1 starter in 2020 at -130 with not at -110.
If it's not Tannehill, it could be Tom Brady coming to Nashville in free agency. On the William Hill NFL futures odds, that Brady returns to the Patriots is a -130 favorite, but the Titans are second-favorites to be his next team at +450 along with the Raiders.
Might Tennessee be better off just sticking with Tannehill, though? Brady is 42 and definitely regressed last season with a rating of just 88.0. That was tied with the Colts' Jacoby Brissett for 18th in the NFL. Brady's yards per attempt were a measly 6.6. He struggled in the playoff loss to the Titans, going 20 of 37 for 209 yards with a pick.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the Titans to be a slightly better team in 2020 with Tannehill over Brady if going by their season statistics from last year. The Titans have a win total of 9.1 with Tannehill, a 48.6 percent chance to win the AFC South, 60 percent shot at the playoffs, 4.7 percent chance to win the AFC and 1.8 percent to win the Super Bowl.
With Brady, those numbers are 9.0, 46.7, 59.1, 4.4 and 1.7, respectively. That said, the Model also ran a simulation where Brady sees a statistical jump with more offensive talent around him in Tennessee (Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, etc.), just like Tannehill's numbers got better going from Miami to the Titans. In that scenario, the Titans project to 9.8 wins, a 59 percent shot at the division title, 72 percent for the playoffs, 8.5 percent for the AFC title and 4.0 to win the Super Bowl.
Tennessee is currently +3500 (35/1) to win Super Bowl 56 in Tampa. The Titans have a win total of 8.5, with the Over a slight favorite.
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