SportsLine NFL simulations: Titans tad worse with 2019 Tom Brady over Ryan Tannehill
The Tennessee Titans reportedly are in the running to sign Tom Brady. However, the SportsLine Projection Model projects the team to be slightly worse with Brady under center over Ryan Tannehill if it's the 2019 versions of both.
It might surprise some NFL fans to realize just how statistically good Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill was last season after taking over as Tennessee's starter for an ineffective Marcus Mariota. Tannehill led the NFL in overall quarterback rating at a career-high 117.5 – he never had a number better than 93.5 during his time with the Dolphins – and in fourth-quarter rating at 123.3.
The Titans went 7-3 with Tannehill as the starter during the regular season and then he led them to upsets in New England and Baltimore in the playoffs before Tennessee ran into the buzzsaw that is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the AFC title game.
Tennessee has until Saturday to slap a franchise or transition tag on Tannehill, and if the team doesn't he could easily walk. However, SportsLine NFL oddsmakers list that Tannehill is the Titans' Week 1 starter in 2020 at -130 with not at -110.
If it's not Tannehill, it could be Tom Brady coming to Nashville in free agency. On the William Hill NFL futures odds, that Brady returns to the Patriots is a -130 favorite, but the Titans are second-favorites to be his next team at +450 along with the Raiders.
Might Tennessee be better off just sticking with Tannehill, though? Brady is 42 and definitely regressed last season with a rating of just 88.0. That was tied with the Colts' Jacoby Brissett for 18th in the NFL. Brady's yards per attempt were a measly 6.6. He struggled in the playoff loss to the Titans, going 20 of 37 for 209 yards with a pick.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the Titans to be a slightly better team in 2020 with Tannehill over Brady if going by their season statistics from last year. The Titans have a win total of 9.1 with Tannehill, a 48.6 percent chance to win the AFC South, 60 percent shot at the playoffs, 4.7 percent chance to win the AFC and 1.8 percent to win the Super Bowl.
With Brady, those numbers are 9.0, 46.7, 59.1, 4.4 and 1.7, respectively. That said, the Model also ran a simulation where Brady sees a statistical jump with more offensive talent around him in Tennessee (Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, etc.), just like Tannehill's numbers got better going from Miami to the Titans. In that scenario, the Titans project to 9.8 wins, a 59 percent shot at the division title, 72 percent for the playoffs, 8.5 percent for the AFC title and 4.0 to win the Super Bowl.
Tennessee is currently +3500 (35/1) to win Super Bowl 56 in Tampa. The Titans have a win total of 8.5, with the Over a slight favorite.
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