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Sports Cheetah's Top 10 teams, plus Week 6 ATS leans

Handicapper Preston Johnson, aka the Sports Cheetah, unveils his Top 10 in college football and shares opinions on some of Week 6's marquee showdowns.

By@SportsCheetahUpdated: Nov 06, 2017 4:53PM UTC . 7 min read

Rating teams each week and making adjustments to their power ratings isn't anything like you see in media polls. In my weekly Top 10, I explain why I made an adjustment as well as break down significant upcoming games for each team that week.

Here's a look at my new Top 10, along with some spread leans for this weekend’s games:

1. Alabama (95): The Crimson Tide, somewhat surprisingly, struggled early against Kentucky at home in Week 5. It was tied 3-3 in the middle of the second-quarter before Alabama ultimately ended the game on a 31-3 run to get the win. I didn't make any adjustments to their power rating, but if they struggle offensively again the next few weeks, I may need to look into it more. A 14-point favorite at Arkansas in Week 6 is about right. My numbers made this game 14.5, so I won’t be getting involved.

2. Ohio State (93): I've upgraded my power rating for the Buckeyes a point after their 58-0 win last Saturday. People probably see that and think it's against Rutgers, what is the big deal? The main reason for my adjustment is that my number for the game wound up being a few points short of the market close. I've talked through this concept in the past in this weekly column, but when I'm short (or high) on the same team in consecutive weeks in comparison to the market close, it's likely I'm off a bit and so I act accordingly. Ohio State gets Indiana at home in Week 6, and the Hoosiers are coming off one of the bigger wins in program history. The line opened at 31.5, which was too high, but at the current 29 I would just stay away.

3. Clemson (91): The Tigers got a massive win over Louisville Saturday night, but it didn't come without a scare. Clemson went up 28-10 at halftime, only to squander the lead and trail by eight points late in the game. Deshaun Watson led the Tigers on two touchdown drives in the final seven minutes to regain the lead before the defense eventually held on for the win. It was a nice win for the sake of my wallet (this was the biggest bet I had made to this point in the season), but I was extremely impressed yet again by Lamar Jackson and this Louisville squad. The hype is for real, and a matchup at Houston late in the year will be another fantastic game like this one. Looking ahead to Week 6, Clemson is on the road at Boston College and currently laying 17 points. They play on Friday night so the week is a little shorter and the potential hangover a little nearer. My numbers made this game 15, so getting 17 on the Eagles at home in a pretty bad spot for the Tigers definitely interests me.

4. Louisville (90.5): See above. The Cardinals played great football in a tough environment against one of the Top 3 teams in the country. Jackson is still the front-runner to win the Heisman trophy, and, it will require some help from other teams. But if the Cardinals win out -- remember they still have a game at No. 5 Houston -- I think they could sneak into the College Football Playoff still. I was genuinely surprised to see them close as 1-point favorites on the road at Clemson. I think we took advantage of the added value in a good spot, but it doesn’t mean I’m dropping the Cardinals in my power ratings at all. In fact, I bumped their raw number up yet again after Week 5. They have a bye this week and host Duke in Week 7.

5. Michigan (89): The Wolverines kept their undefeated season alive thanks to a defensive performance that limited a really strong Wisconsin Badgers squad to just seven points. However, it doesn't mean all is well in Ann Arbor heading into Week 6. The Wolverines missed all three of their field-goal attempts Saturday and head coach Jim Harbaugh has announced that the kicking duties are up for grabs this week. They're holding an open competition for the placekicker spot this week if you’re interested. To make matters worse, starting left tackle Grant Newsome suffered a season-ending knee injury as well. Fortunately they get Rutgers in Week 6, but it’s probably a difficult spot to be laying four touchdowns.

6. Oklahoma (87.5): Despite a slow start, the Sooners took care of business with a win at TCU in Week 5. It's fair to assume at this point that they are the front-runners to win the conference, but they’ll likely be tested again this Saturday against their rival, the Texas Longhorns. Texas has beaten Oklahoma twice in the last three seasons, and the game they lost in 2014 was only by five points. Bob Stoops certainly won’t be overlooking this game now, but I'm still somewhat surprised to see them laying double-digits in this matchup in a game that Charlie Strong looks to be coaching for the right to keep his job. It’s the Longhorns or nothing for me at the current number.

7. Washington (87.5): We backed the Huskies on Friday night at -3 so I wasn't too surprised to see them get the win and cover, but to do so in dominating fashion (44-6) against a really good Stanford team was as impressive a win as I've seen this season. Now they turn around and hit the road to play the Ducks in Week 6. The Oregon game Saturday night was another SportsLine winner backing Wazzu to win the game, so I'm not as concerned as most are with the Ducks’ performance. This game actually opened Oregon as 4.5-point favorites over the summer at South Point's Game of the Year lines. To see Washington now laying over a touchdown on the road is a bit too extreme. My number is UW -5, so I do have some interest in Oregon, but I'm ultimately in wait-and-see mode since 7.5 to 9.5 is mostly a dead area and we might see a 10 pop later in the week.

8. Florida State (86.5): I downgraded the Seminoles after the home loss to the Tar Heels on Saturday and deservedly so. Not only has Florida State underachieved to this point -- primarily the mess we see each week on the defensive side of the ball -- but now coach Jimbo Fisher and company have suffered two losses and are out of contention for a playoff spot. I’m not sure how motivated the Seminoles will be going forward, and we'll get a good idea this week when they face the Miami Hurricanes. I likely won’t bet getting involved in FSU games for the next few weeks.

9. Texas A&M (86): The Aggies made their way into my Top 10 last week after impressive wins over UCLA, Auburn and Arkansas. But, more importantly, the market indicated this Texas A&M team was being undervalued each week and I made some adjustments. We saw the Aggies get bet up in Week 5 at South Carolina as well. They didn't cover the big number this time, but they’re definitely being respected. Their matchup against the Volunteers in Week 6 is a big one for not only the SEC landscape, but the national picture too. Tennessee is coming off of a Hail Mary victory at Georgia and a come-from-behind win against Florida the week before that. It feels like a good spot to back the better team at home, but the number up to -7 now is fair, so I’ll be passing.

10. LSU (86): I mentioned last week that I wanted to wait and see how LSU responded to firing Les Miles. I had hoped they would come out fired up and they certainly did, defeating Missouri 42-7. Miles was getting the least out of one of the most talented squads in the nation. If the Tigers continue to play like they did in Week 5, they’re certainly a team worth looking to back going forward in good spots.

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