South Florida vs. Louisville odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The 11th-seeded South Florida Bulls meet the sixth-seeded Louisville Cardinals in the first round of the NCAA Tournament East regional on Thursday. South Florida is coming off a 70-55 win over Wichita State on Sunday to win the American Conference Tournament championship, while Louisville dropped a 78-73 decision to Miami (Fla.) in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament on March 12. The Bulls (25-8), who won the American regular season title at 15-3, have won 11 games in a row. The Cardinals (23-10), who finished sixth in the ACC standings at 11-7, have won three of their last four games.

Tip-off from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., is set for 1:30 p.m. ET. Louisville leads the all-time series 29-4, with the last meeting in 2014. Louisville is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest South Florida vs. Louisville odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 165.5. 

Before making any South Florida vs. Louisville picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated South Florida vs. Louisville 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 70% of the time!

So who wins South Florida vs. Louisville, and which side of the spread hits well over 70% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!