Teams looking to turn their recent fortunes around meet in the first game of a three-game series when the Kansas City Royals battle the New York Yankees on Monday night. The Royals (8-8), who have lost three of five, are 2-4 on the road this year. The Yankees (8-7), who have lost five of seven, are 5-4 at their home field in 2025.
First pitch from Yankee Stadium in New York is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. New York is a -141 favorite on the money line (risk $141 to win $100) in the latest Royals vs. Yankees odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 9.
Before making any Royals vs. Yankees picks or MLB predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 MLB season on a 34-19 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+629) that dates back to 2023. Anybody following could have seen strong returns.
The model knows New York will send right-hander Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 7.71 ERA) to the mound. In a 9-7 win over Arizona, Carrasco was solid, allowing five hits and three earned runs in 5.1 innings, walking two and striking out five. He has won 14 or more games in four of his previous 12 MLB seasons. He has had a lot of success against the Royals. In 16 career starts against them, he is 10-5 with a 3.52 ERA.
The model also knows right-hander Seth Lugo (1-1, 3.24 ERA) is expected to take the mound for Kansas City. He is coming off a 4-0 loss to Minnesota on Wednesday, going 5.2 innings and allowing five hits, two earned runs and three walks while striking out six. In an 8-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles on April 4, he picked up the win, pitching six innings and allowing four hits, three earned runs and three walks, while striking out four. In 14 career games against the Yankees, including four starts, he is 5-2 with a 2.55 ERA.
The model has simulated Royals vs. Yankees 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the run total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!
Who wins Royals vs. Yankees, and which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the money line you should be all over, all from the model on a 34-19 roll on top-rated MLB picks!
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Written by Daniel Kohn
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