Retirement rumors: QB Tom Brady expected to bow out after 22 NFL seasons, but no decision yet

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were denied a chance to defend their Super Bowl title by the Rams, it was decision time for quarterback Tom Brady. And while ESPN reported Saturday that the seven-time Super Bowl champion's decision on his future has been made, he has not informed the team of his plans yet. 

CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora reported Friday that ex-teammates and others close to the legendary quarterback expected the three-time league MVP to call it quits. ESPN's Adam Schefter and Jeff Darlington took it a step further Saturday, indicating an announcement was imminent.

Earlier reports said the quarterback had made up his mind before Tampa Bay's 30-27 loss to the Rams last week. But Brady's father, Tom Brady Sr., and agent Don Yee told numerous outlets Saturday afternoon that no decision has been made. "Tommy has not made a final decision one way or another, and anybody else that says that he has is absolutely wrong," Tom Brady Sr. told NFL Media's Mike Giardi.

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If Brady retires, Tampa Bay would be left scrambling for option to replace him. The only other quarterbacks on the Tampa Bay roster are journeyman Blaine Gabbert and 2021 second-round draft pick Kyle Trask. Neither is considered a viable solution for next season.

SportsLine oddsmakers have taken a look at the available options and peg Teddy Bridgewater as the +400 favorite to be the Tampa Bay starter if Brady retires. The former Vikings first-round pick was the starter most of the past two seasons in Denver. 

San Francisco starter Jimmy Garoppolo, who has led his team into Sunday's NFC Championship Game, is almost certain to be displaced by 2021 third overall pick Trey Lance next season. Garoppolo would need to be acquired in a trade but is the +500 co-second choice, according SportsLine's oddsmakers, along with free agent Cam Newton.

The 44-year-old Brady led a Tampa Bay team that was hammered by injuries to the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs. He led a furious comeback that just fell short against the Rams, which followed a 31-15 victory against the Eagles.

The team performed far better with Brady in 2021 than it would have with any of its other quarterbacks, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. The model simulated the Bucs' 2021 season with and without Brady, and the results are striking. 

The Bucs would have had three fewer wins, according to the projections (11-8), and a nearly 61 percent worse chance of making the playoffs (88.2-27.5). As the season played out, the Bucs went 13-4 and won the NFC South, with Brady having a career season.  

The quarterback, considered by most to be the greatest of all-time, led the NFL with a career-high 5,316 passing yards and had an NFL-best 43 TD passes in the regular season. He holds career records for most touchdown passes (624) and most passing yards (84,250), among many other accomplishments over his illustrious 22-year career. 

The Bucs are facing what could be significant roster turnover. The prolific offense could lose numerous pieces, including Brady if he opts to step aside. In addition, running backs Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones and star wideout Chris Godwin are unrestricted free agents. Defenders Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul, Carlton Davis and Jordan Whitehead also could be among the players moving on. The Bucs have just $20 million in cap space, according to OverTheCap.com.

Brady has been a solid play for bettors as a starter in his NFL career with New England and Tampa Bay, going 205-141 ATS (59 percent). He is 127-80 ATS in non-divisional games and 49-23 ATS when coming off a loss.

It is unclear when Brady will make any announcement, but reports indicate he does not want to upstage the 2022 NFL Playoffs or next month's Super Bowl.

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