The Boston Red Sox battle the Baltimore Orioles in the third and deciding game of their series on Thursday afternoon. The Red Sox (2-4), who finished third in the American League East at 81-81 in 2024, were 43-38 on the road a year ago. The Orioles (3-3), who placed second in the division at 91-71 last season, were 44-37 on their home field.
First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. Baltimore is a -120 favorite on the money line (risk $120 to win $100) in the latest Red Sox vs. Orioles odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total is over/under 9 runs in the latest MLB odds via SportsLine consensus.
Before making any Red Sox vs. Orioles picks or MLB predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 MLB season on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+699) that dates back to 2023. Anybody following could have seen strong returns.
The model knows Baltimore will send right-hander Charlie Morton (0-1, 10.80 ERA) to the hill. He took the loss in his first start, an 8-2 decision at Toronto on Friday. In that game, he pitched 3.1 innings, allowing seven hits, four earned runs and one walk while striking out three. He spent the past four years with the Atlanta Braves. In 30 starts last season, he went 8-10 with a 4.19 ERA. In 165.1 innings, he allowed 154 hits, 77 earned runs and 65 walks with 167 strikeouts.
The model also knows right-hander Tanner Houck (0-1, 6.35 ERA) gets the start for Boston. It will be his second start of the season, after taking the loss in a 4-1 defeat at Texas on Friday. In that game, Houck pitched 5.2 innings, allowing seven hits, four earned runs and three walks, while striking out two. In 30 starts last season, Houck went 9-10 with a 3.12 ERA. In 178.2 innings, he allowed 156 hits, 62 earned runs and 48 walks, while striking out 154.
The model has simulated Red Sox vs. Orioles 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the run total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!
Who wins Rangers vs. Reds, and which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the money line you should be all over, all from the model on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB picks!
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Written by Daniel Kohn
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