Raptors vs. 76ers NBA playoff odds: Toronto good value via SportsLine Projection Model for series upset with Matisse Thybulle status, James Harden struggles

The Philadelphia 76ers might have earned the worst first-round draw of any legitimate Eastern Conference contender for the playoffs because Philly has to face Toronto starting Saturday in the City of Brotherly Love. The Raptors won three of four in the regular-season series, and the SportsLine Projection Model considers Toronto the best underdog value in the round because Philly's James Harden is struggling and the team won't have Matisse Thybulle for games in Toronto. The Sixers opened as -210 series favorites at Caesars with the Raptors +175. 

Harden of course forced the trade from Brooklyn to Philadelphia and is shooting only 40.2 percent from the field with the Sixers and 32.6 percent from deep. In five games this month, Harden is averaging 15.8 points on just 36.1 percent shooting overall and 27.3 percent from deep. He's also turning the ball over 4.2 times per game. The Beard also has a very shaky history in the postseason.

"I know that I'm not making shots," Harden said recently. "But I'm one of the most confident players we have in this league because I put the work in. It is what it is. It's a part of the game. … [I'll] continue to work my [butt] off. Ain't no other choice. Ain't no time to feel sorry for nobody, feel sorry for myself. Continue to put the work in, continue to [stay in the] gym and you live with the results. That's how I'm built."

Thybulle doesn't offer the Sixers much offensively but he's a defensive dynamo – second-team All-Defensive Team pick last season -- and likely would have been a primary defender on Toronto's Pascal Siakam, who has been one of the best players in the NBA since the All-Star break. Thybulle admitted Sunday that he's not fully vaccinated and will not be, so he will not be allowed to even travel across the border to Canada. Games 3 and 4 in Toronto are TBA schedule-wise and then a possible Game 6 would be there.

Thybulle missed 16 games this season – including a 119-114 loss in Toronto on April 7 – and the team was 8-8 without him. The Sixers' defensive rating with him on the court is 111.2 and without 114.2. Since Harden made his 76ers debut, Philadelphia has allowed only 105.6 points per 100 possessions with Thybulle on the floor and 116 without him.

Thybulle would be a loss against any team, but the Raptors are very strong on the wing with Siakam, Rookie of the Year candidate Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby. Danny Green, a member of the Raptors' 2019 championship team, will likely play more for Philly when Thybulle is out.

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