Patrick Mahomes is arguably the most recognizable player in the NFL today. The former Texas Tech standout is a two-time NFL MVP, and has guided the Kansas City Chiefs to five AFC Championships and three Super Bowl titles. He is currently one of the top contenders to win the 2025 MVP award, coming in at +700 (risk $100 to win $700) in the latest 2025 NFL MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. With the 2025 NFL season still over two months away, there are also several additional Patrick Mahomes prop bets available on the betting markets. 

SportsLine expert Jimmie Kaylor has broken down the latest NFL odds and just locked in his top Patrick Mahomes prop bet picks for the 2025 NFL season. You'll want to see Kaylor's picks before making any NFL futures picks of your own. 

Kaylor is a DFS and betting expert for SportsLine, who won a DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest in 2022. He uses a combination of his background as a former college and NFL football player and his keen eye for statistical trends when making his picks and locking in his DFS lineups. Kaylor enters the 2024 calendar year with multiple five-figure tournament cashes on his DFS resume, and has been profitable across multiple sports since joining SportsLine as an expert handicapper. 

Here are Kaylor's top prop bet picks for Mahomes in 2025. All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Patrick Mahomes Over 4,050.5 passing yards (-110)

In the seven seasons since taking over as Kansas City's full-time starting quarterback, Mahomes' regular season passing yardage totals have been:

• 5,097
• 4,031
• 4,740
• 4,839
• 5,250
• 4,183
• 3,928

Kansas City invested in its offensive line this offseason, and they have quietly assembled a very solid group of pass catchers (Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster). I expect the Chiefs to have a mediocre rushing attack, and see them lean heavily on their passing game in 2025. In my early projections, I have a floor of 4,200 passing yards for Mahomes in 2025, making this a great value.

Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 touchdown passes (-110)

Mahomes had just 26 touchdown passes in 2024, but is averaging 35 per season in his seven seasons as the Chiefs' starter. I expect Kansas City's offense to be more explosive in 2025 with Mahomes being the main catalyst. I expect the two-time NFL MVP to notch his fifth season with 30 or more touchdown passes this fall. 

Looking for more NFL picks?

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