Projection model simulates Kentucky vs. Tennessee 10,000 times

The No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers will face their biggest test to date in SEC play on Saturday when they travel to Rupp Arena to take on the No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats at 8 p.m. ET.

In addition to being an intense rivalry game, both teams have serious national title aspiration and this game could be crucial in determining whether either of these teams is worthy of a No. 1 seed at the NCAA Tournament. So with so much on the line, you can expect a tournament-like atmosphere on Saturday night. 

Want to get picks and projections for every single college basketball game, March Madness, Fantasy and DFS help plus much, much more? Join SportsLine now, and for a limited time use promo code SPRING to get a quarterly subscription for just $12.49!

The Volunteers enter Saturday night on a 19-game winning streak. It's the longest in the history of the program and they're 23-1 on the season with impressive neutral-site wins over Louisville and Gonzaga as well as road wins over rivals Memphis and Florida.

Tennessee has the No. 2 offense in the nation according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Forwards Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield lead the charge for the Vols at both ends and point guard Josh Bone is one of the most underrated players in the nation. Jordan Bowden and Lamonte Turner also provide impressive shot-making ability from the perimeter.

However, this begins the most trying portion of the Tennessee schedule. Including Saturday's matchup with Kentucky, the Vols finish their season with six of their last seven games coming against teams inside the top 32 in the NCAA NET rankings and four of those games come on the road.

A win over Kentucky on the road and a solid finish to the season against the SEC's best could help them build a resume that could compete with Duke for the No. 1 overall seed.

The Wildcats enter Saturday's battle coming off a tough loss at home against LSU. They had won 10 games in a row prior to the defeat.

During that winning streak and in earlier wins Quadrant 1 wins in the non-conference over North Carolina at a neutral site and Louisville on the road, Kentucky proved it has grown considerably since being blown out by Duke in the season opener. Now they'll have a chance to fight their way into No. 1 seed contention with two games left against Tennessee and at least two other potential Quadrant 1 wins remaining on their schedule.

Kentucky smashes opponents on the offensive glass, grabbing 38.3 percent of their own misses against Division-I opponents (third-best in the nation). So expect big-bodied forwards Reid Travis and P.J. Washington to be keys to getting the win over Tennessee on Saturday night. 

Here's a look at the projected scores and stats for Kentucky vs. Tennessee. Simulations run every 15 minutes and all projections are updated on the game forecast page.

Saturday, Feb. 16

TENNESSEE AT KENTUCKY, 8 p.m. ET

SportsLine Projection Model's score: Kentucky 76, Tennessee 75

Vegas line: Kentucky -4 (O/U 145)

Projected Statistics: Kentucky pulls out the narrow victory in the simulations after getting 14.3 points from Reid Travis, 13.8 from Keldon Johnson and 13 from P.J. Washington. The value against the spread, however, is on Tennessee as the Vols get the cover in almost 60 percent of the simulations thanks to 17.4 points from Grant Williams and 14.7 points from Admiral Schofield.