Pittsburgh Steelers Schedule 2020 -- NFL Betting Analysis
The Steelers went 8-8 last year despite Big Ben missing most of the season. Here is a betting analysis of their 2020 schedule.
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It's been 20 years since the Steelers had a three-year playoff drought. Pittsburgh missed the postseason for the second straight time in 2019, finishing 8-8 after quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was lost to a Week 2 elbow injury.
Big Ben will make his return from surgery in the opener of the Monday night doubleheader to kick off the 2020 season at the New York Giants. Roethlisberger is an early betting favorite at William Hill sportsbook for NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
Coach Mike Tomlin's team opened as 3-point favorites at the rebuilding Giants -- it will be the debut of Big Blue's new head coach, Joe Judge. The Steelers are 1-8 against the spread in their past nine road openers.
Consider backing the Steelers in Week 11 at Jacksonville, before they host Baltimore. In the past decade, Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS on Sunday the week before hosting the Ravens.
Tomlin also is 11-3-2 ATS all-time as a home dog; that scenario should be in play Week 12 vs. Baltimore.
Pittsburgh has a very good shot at starting 3-0 after beginning 0-3 last year because it also will be favored Week 2 at home vs. Denver and Week 3 vs. Houston; the Texans were a playoff team last year but made some puzzling offseason moves, like trading star wideout DeAndre Hopkins.
No question Pittsburgh is one of the NFL's marquee franchises and thus got four prime-time matchups, out of a maximum of five. There's also a very glamorous matchup in Dallas in Week 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET but otherwise every other game kicks off at 1 p.m. -- with the possibility of late-season games being flexed.
The Steelers close with three of their final four on the road, which is far from ideal, but two are against teams that finished with losing records in 2019, the Bengals and Browns.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS BETTING PROFILE
2019 record: 8-8 (second, AFC North)
2019 against the spread: 9-7 ATS
2019 ATS margin: -1.3
2019 Over-Under: 4-12 O-U
2020 strength of schedule: Second-easiest; Steelers' opponents combined for a .457 winning percentage last year (117-139).
WILLIAM HILL 2020 PITTSBURGH STEELERS FUTURES ODDS
Win total: 9.0 (Over -120)
To make playoffs: Yes -125, no +105
Division: +275 to win AFC North
Conference: +1200 to win AFC
Super Bowl: +3300 to win SB 55
MVP: QB Ben Roethlisberger +5000, RB James Conner +20000
Defensive POY: LB T.J. Watt +1600, S Minkah Fitzpatrick +4000
Offensive ROY: WR Chase Claypool +5000
Comeback POY: QB Ben Roethlisberger +350
Coach of the Year: Mike Tomlin +2500
SportsLine Model's projection: 9.1 wins (Lean to the Over)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS GAME-BY-GAME BETTING TRENDS
Week 1 at NY Giants, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): The Steelers are 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS in their past 20 against the NFC.
Week 2 vs. Denver, 1 PM ET: The Steelers have lost six of the past eight matchups (including two playoff games), going 1-5-2 ATS.
Week 3 vs. Houston, 1 PM ET: The Steelers are 4-1 SU and ATS all-time against the Texans.
Week 4 at Tennessee, 1 PM ET: The Steelers are 3-9 SU (4-8 ATS) in their past 12 visits to Tennessee.
Week 5 vs. Philadelphia, 1 PM ET: The Steelers are 3-6 SU and ATS in the nine meetings dating to 1988.
Week 6 vs. Cleveland, 1 PM ET: The Steelers have won 16 straight at home against Cleveland (10-5-1 ATS).
Week 7 at Baltimore, 1 PM ET: The Steelers are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in the past seven meetings at M&T Bank Stadium.
Week 8 BYE:
Week 9 at Dallas, 4:25 PM ET: The Steelers are 7-3 SU but just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games following a bye.
Week 10 vs. Cincinnati, 1 PM ET: The Steelers have won six of the past seven (5-2 ATS) at home against the Bengals.
Week 11 at Jacksonville, 1 PM ET: Pittsburgh is 27-36-2 (43 percent) ATS as a road favorite under Tomlin and it certainly should be one here.
Week 12 vs. Baltimore, 8:20 PM ET (Thanksgiving): The Ravens are 4-0-2 ATS (4-2 SU) in the past six at Pittsburgh, including a 30-17 win as a three-point underdog in a 2015 Wild-Card game.
Week 13 vs. Washington, 1 PM ET: The Steelers have won six straight meetings (4-2 ATS), dating to 1997, and the Under is 5-1.
Week 14 at Buffalo, 8:20 PM ET: The Steelers are 10-2 SU and ATS in the past 12 meetings, and the Under is 8-4.
Week 15 at Cincinnati, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): Pittsburgh has won seven straight at Paul Brown Stadium (4-1-2 ATS).
Week 16 vs. Indianapolis, 1 PM ET: Pittsburgh is 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS against the Colts at home since 1985.
Week 17 at Cleveland, 1 PM ET: The Under is 7-1 in the past eight meetings.
EXPERT PICK FROM LEGENDARY ODDSMAKER KENNY WHITE: Over 9 wins (-120)
Big Ben is the reason, but let's talk schedule. The Steelers don't play back-to-back road games until December and in their first 10 games they play at the NY Giants, host Denver, host Cleveland, host Cincinnati, visit Jacksonville and host Washington. They could very easily win all six, leaving them 10 other games to win four!
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS SCHEDULE NOTES
The Steelers face just five teams that posted winning records last year: Ravens (twice), Texans, Titans, Eagles and Bills. It helps that Pittsburgh plays four games against the weak NFC East.
Two of the NFL's best defensive players are brothers: Steelers linebacker TJ Watt and Texans defensive end JJ Watt, a three-time winner of the Defensive Player of the Year Award. They meet Week 3 in the "Watt Bowl."
The Battle of Pennsylvania is Week 5 and the Eagles embarrassed the Steelers 34-3 in the last meeting in 2016.
Expect the NFL to warn its officials ahead of the Week 6 game vs. Cleveland that there could be some chippiness. Why? That would be Myles Garrett's first game against Pittsburgh since he was suspended the rest of 2019 for hitting Mason Rudolph in the head with a helmet in Week 11 in Cleveland last year. In his appeal of the suspension, Garrett claimed Rudolph made racial remarks, which was never proven and obviously didn't go over well with the Steelers.
History will be made on Thanksgiving against the arch-rival Ravens in the third of three Turkey Day games. While the Steelers have played on the holiday nine times, they have never hosted.
That Week 14 matchup in Buffalo will be an absolute madhouse at New Era Field because the Bills haven't hosted a Sunday night game since 2007. Buffalo's game in Pittsburgh in Week 15 last year was flexed into Sunday night. The Bills won 17-10, their first-ever regular-season win in the Steel City, to clinch a playoff berth.