The Philadelphia Phillies will battle the Cincinnati Reds in a key National League matchup on Monday night. The Phillies (68-49), who have won three in a row, are 31-28 on the road this season. The Reds (62-57), who have won two straight, are 33-26 on their home field in 2025.

First pitch from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies have won three of the past four meetings with the Reds. Cincinnati is a -124 favorite on the money line (risk $124 to win $100) in the latest Phillies vs. Reds odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 9.5 in the latest MLB odds. 

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The model has simulated Phillies vs. Reds 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is going Under on the run total, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value!

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