Pete's Best Bets: The points are a bonus this Sunday

The weather might be getting cold in a lot of places, but I am as hot as the Aruba sun in the postseason with my NFL best bets.

After going 3-1 in the Wild Card round, I followed it up with another 3-1 mark last week in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Were it not for the Hail Mary on the final play of the game by the Packers, it would have been a 3-0-1 mark. Even so, I will take it. 

When you can go 6-2 over the course of two weeks in the playoffs, that's good pickings.

As we head to Conference Championship Sunday, I am going to the dogs -- and I don't mean just with the points. I think both underdogs will win their games outright, so the points are a nice little security blanket to have just in case.

That's right. I like Denver and Arizona to meet in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, Calif., unlike most prognosticators, who see both favorites winning this week.

Here are my picks at I attempt to stay hotter than that first spoonful of soup on a cold day.

Broncos (+3) vs. Patriots  (SportsLine's pick)  -- Yes, the Patriots are rolling into this game after beating up on the Chiefs last week, while Denver didn't look great winning at home against the Steelers.

But too much can be put into one game.

This Denver team has the defense to match up with Tom Brady. They can lock up and play tight man in the secondary, and they have the pass rushers who can create problems up front. I think Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson, two down linemen, could be huge for the Broncos.

Peyton Manning hasn't been the same quarterback, but he had nine drops last week. That won't happen again. Denver ran it at New England when they beat them earlier this year, and I think they will have success again. The Patriots are dinged up on defense.

This will be a lower-scoring game than most think, but Manning will go to 3-2 against Tom Brady in the playoffs, with three straight wins. Broncos take it outright.

Cardinals (+3) at Panthers, 6:40 p.m. ET  (SportsLine's pick)  -- Carolina has had some pass-coverage issues the past few games, and especially in the second half against Seattle last week.

That's not a good thing against Carson Palmer and the Arizona passing game.

The Cardinals got off to a slow start last week against Green Bay and seemed a bit jittery early on. This time around I would expect them to get back to the deep-passing game early against a Carolina secondary that can be beat.

The Carolina pass rush is good inside, but just so-so outside. That's a problem against Palmer.

Cam Newton will do his thing and the Panthers will score points. I just think this will come down to Palmer and his receivers getting the job done. The Cardinals win it.