Pete's Best Bets: Five home teams to bank on

My picking last week was worse than Chuck Pagano’s fourth-down disaster against the Patriots.

OK, not that bad.

But close.

After two stellar weeks with my Best Bets I went 2-3 last week, and two of the three losses weren't even close.

That drops the season record to 17-12-1 as part of Team Oddshark in the SuperContest at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. That isn't winning any grand prize, that's for sure.

Unless, of course, I go 5-0 every week the rest of the way, starting now. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. But a guy can dream, can't he?

All it takes is one undefeated week to get me going on a Daniel Murphy-like hot streak. Hey, I once worked out at the same facility with Murphy. Maybe his hot streak for the Mets will rub off on me.

Here are my five top picks for Week 7. Enjoy.

Browns at Rams (-5.5) -- The Browns are horrible against the run and Todd Gurley had it going before the bye. He will continue it here.

I also think the Rams pass rush will get all over Josh McCown without the Browns having a legitimate running attack.

The Rams take it in an easy one.

Steelers at Chiefs (-1.5) --The Steelers have won their last two without Ben Roethlisberger, but this will be Landry Jones' first start.

It's a lot tougher to play when a team game plans for you, rather than when you come off the bench.

The Chiefs will get after him with a pass rush that hasn't lived up to the hype yet. Not having left tackle Kelvin Beachum will show up for the Steelers. 

Texans at Dolphins (-4) -- The Texans are playing consecutive road games, which is always tough.

Miami will be playing its first home game under interim coach Dan Campbell. He seemed to spark them last week, and I think that will carry over.

I will buck a big trend here since the Texans are 7-0 the last seven straight up against the Dolphins.

Jets at Patriots (-9) -- Even though the trends point to the Jets, I just think this is a Tom Brady statement game.

The Jets have the top-rated scoring defense, while the Patriots have the top-ranked scoring offense.

I think Brady and his passing game will cause problems for the Jets with their pick and rub routes.

Patriots take it by double-digits. 

Vikings at Lions (+2.5) -- I think the Lions found something last week against the Bears, which was to play fast and throw it around like the old days with Matt Stafford.

The Vikings are 14th in the league in pass defense, but I think there will be chances down the field here.

Minnesota is 31st in total offense, so it's not like they are lighting it up.

The Lions take it, even though the Vikings have had their number as a favorite, winning 16 of 17 in that role. 

Pete Prisco is a Senior NFL Writer for CBSSports.com. You can follow Pete at @PriscoCBS