Padres vs. Phillies odds, lines: Advanced computer model reveals picks for Tuesday's NL Championship Series opener

Fresh off series victories over a pair of 100-win teams, the San Diego Padres continue their quest for the first world championship in franchise history when they host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Tuesday. San Diego (89-73) defeated the 101-win New York Mets in the Wild Card Series before knocking off the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers, who shattered the franchise record with 111 victories this season. Philadelphia (87-75) also has pulled off a pair of upsets this postseason, beating the St. Louis Cardinals and the defending champion Atlanta Braves. The Phillies won the season series 4-3 and took three of four in San Diego.

First pitch at Petco Park is set for 8:03 p.m. ET. San Diego is listed as a -120 favorite (risk $120 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Padres vs. Phillies odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total runs scored is 6.5. (see the latest lines for every game on our MLB odds page).

Before making any Phillies vs. Padres picks, you NEED to see the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it enters the league championship round on a 20-13 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks, returning more than $400. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

The model knows the Padres received some solid pitching performances in the NL Division Series as they limited the Dodgers, who led the majors with 847 runs scored, to a total of seven in their three victories. Right-hander Yu Darvish has won both of his starts this postseason and pitched extremely well in two outings against Philadelphia in the regular season, going 1-0 while allowing just three runs over 13 innings. The bottom of the Padres' lineup led the offense over the first two playoff rounds as Trent Grisham and Austin Nola both have gone 8-for-21, with the former recording three homers and five RBI while the latter has driven in four runs.

The model also knows Philadelphia has received contributions from its entire starting lineup as all nine players have registered at least two RBI over six games. Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper leads the offense with three homers and six RBI while Nick Castellanos, who struggled in his first season with the Phillies (13 homers, 62 RBI), has plated five runs. Philadelphia is expected to start right-hander Zack Wheeler, who scattered four hits over seven scoreless innings of a win in his only turn against San Diego this year and is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA in seven career outings versus the club.

Now, it has set its sights on Padres vs. Phillies. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any MLB picks of your own.

So who wins Game 1 of Padres vs. Phillies? And which side of the money line has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Phillies vs. Padres run line you should be all over on Tuesday, all from the model on a roll on MLB picks!