The No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder hosts the No. 4 seed Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Monday. The Thunder swept the Memphis Grizzlies 4-0 and cruised into the second round. On the other side, the Nuggets beat the Los Angeles Clippers in seven games to advance. The teams split four regular-season matchups, including splitting their pair of meetings in OKC. The two franchises also split their four prior playoff series matchups.

Tip-off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 228.5. OKC is at -485 on the money line (risk $485 to win $100), while Denver is at +369 (risk $100 to win $369).

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The model has simulated Nuggets vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is going Under on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations!

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