North Texas vs. San Diego State odds, line: 2025 college football picks for New Mexico Bowl matchup from proven model

Teams looking to finish their season on a high note meet when the North Texas Mean Green battle the San Diego State Aztecs in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday. North Texas is coming off a 34-21 loss to Tulane in the American Conference Championship Game, while San Diego State finished its regular season with a 23-17 two-overtime loss at New Mexico on Nov. 28. The Mean Green (11-2), who finished tied for first in the American at 7-1, have won six of their last seven games. The Aztecs (9-3), who finished in a four-way tie for the Mountain West title, are 2-2 in their last four games.

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Both teams have several key injuries and defectors through the transfer portal. North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker is one of those players who is expected to play, but then enter the transfer portal. Mean Green wide receivers Wyatt Young and Miles Coleman are potential opt-outs, but no announcement has been made yet. San Diego State starting quarterback Jayden Denegal (shoulder) had surgery recently and will not play. Head coach Eric Morris left North Texas for Oklahoma State and San Diego State defensive coordinator Rob Aurich has left for the same job at Nebraska.

Kickoff from University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M., is at 5:45 p.m. ET. San Diego State leads the all-time record 6-1. The Mean Green are 3-point favorites in the latest North Texas vs. San Diego State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 53.5 via SportsLine consensus. 

Before making any North Texas vs. San Diego State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is profitable on its top-rated money-line and over/under picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. Anyone following could have seen impressive returns.

The model has simulated North Texas vs. San Diego State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 70% of simulations!

So who wins North Texas vs. San Diego State, and which side of the spread hits well over 70% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college football picks!

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