North Dakota State vs. Michigan State odds, prediction: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The 14th-seeded North Dakota State Bison battle the third-seeded Michigan State Spartans in the first round of the NCAA Tournament East Region on Thursday. North Dakota State is coming off a 70-62 win over North Dakota in the Summit League Tournament championship game on March 8, while Michigan State dropped an 88-84 decision to UCLA in the Big Ten Conference Tournament quarterfinals on Friday. The Bison (27-7), who have won four in a row, won the Summit League regular-season title as well, compiling a 14-2 conference mark. The Spartans (25-7), who have dropped two in a row, tied for second in the Big Ten with a 15-5 Big Ten record.

Tip-off from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. This will be the first meeting between the schools. Michigan State is a 16.5-point favorite in the latest North Dakota State vs. Michigan State odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 143.5. 

Before making any North Dakota State vs. Michigan State picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks dating back to last year, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated North Dakota State vs. Michigan State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time!

So who wins North Dakota State vs. Michigan State, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!