North Carolina vs. Virginia odds, prediction: 2026 Atlantic Coast Conference men's college basketball picks from proven model

A pair of ranked teams clash when the No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels battle the No. 14 Virginia Cavaliers in a key Atlantic Coast Conference matchup on Saturday. North Carolina is coming off a 91-69 win over Notre Dame on Wednesday, while Virginia downed SMU 72-68 on Jan. 17. The Tar Heels (15-4, 3-3 ACC), who are seventh in the ACC, are just 1-3 on the road this year. The Cavaliers (16-2, 5-1 ACC), who are third in the conference, are 10-0 on their home floor this season.

Tip-off from John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va., is set for noon ET. Virginia leads the all-time series 136-62, but Virginia is 8-1 in its last nine home games against the Tar Heels. Virginia is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest North Carolina vs. Virginia odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 149.5. 

Before making any North Carolina vs. Virginia picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and entered Week 12 on a sizzling 10-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks. Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated North Carolina vs. Virginia 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations!

So who wins North Carolina vs. Virginia, and which side hits well over 60% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times!