Coming off a string of solid weeks, we got close to another in Week 5 but wound up with a dud. Two losses on each card came when the Buccaneers gave up a garbage-time touchdown to lose their cover, and the Commanders couldn't get the win at the end of their game against the Titans -- though I guess Carson Wentz throwing a back-breaking pick at the goal-line is predictable in some sense. There's nothing to do but pick up the pieces and try and do better in Week 6, where I see a lot of underdogs on the contest lines that look inviting.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a team that's an underdog with one of the best(?) quarterbacks in the league: the Seattle Seahawks +2.5 vs. the Arizona Cardinals.

With this line, the market is telling you the Cardinals are much better than the Seahawks, and I can't see how that's the case. The Cardinals have a better defense than the Seahawks, who rank 32nd in yards per play, but it's not like Arizona's 22nd-ranked defense is good. And that's a problem going up against a Seattle offense that has been one of the best in the league, ranking second in yards per play as well as top three in both the rush and pass games.

Arizona impressed in some sense playing undefeated Philadelphia close last week, but that was an awful spot for the Eagles having to travel west and with a huge matchup against the Cowboys on deck. Good teams would pull off the upset over a team in that spot, but questionable decision-making reared its ugly head for the Cardinals, a team with the pieces to be good but continues to come up short. In their matchup with the Seahawks, I think I'm getting the better (if not as purely talented) quarterback, along with the better coaching staff, home-field advantage and 2.5 points? Yes please.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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