NFL Week 5 power ratings for against the spread picks: What each Week 5 line should be, and where there's value

It's been a great first month of the season, especially on against the spread picks, where I've put together a 22-7 run following wins on the Patriots +7 on Sunday night and the Chargers -3 on Monday night. I'm also 9-1 in the Circa Sports Million contest over the last two weeks to push my overall record to 14-6. While you'll have to wait until Saturday to see the best bets I'm entering in the Circa as well as the Westgate SuperContest, you can find all my picks right here, and be sure to download the SportsLine app and sign up for my notifications to get every pick when I make them so you can be sure you'll get the same number I am on each line.

Now it seems we're through the part of the schedule where we've been able to take advantage of the market overreacting to starts by certain teams. Week 2 is well known as Overreaction Week in the NFL coming out of the first handful of games that we can analyze after months of speculation, but even up to Week 4 we could still project teams like the Panthers and Broncos would fall short while finally facing legitimately good opponents. That's not really the case anymore; it'd be foolish to not buy in to the 4-0 Cardinals after they waxed the Rams and won three of their first four games on the road, though you have to decide how high you're willing to rate them.

I've analyzed every Week 4 performance and made adjustments to my own power ratings. How much did the 49ers drop with the expectation Jimmy Garoppolo will have to miss this week's matchup against the undefeated Cardinals? Which team broke the three-way tie I had at the top of my ratings to establish itself as the best team in football? How much should we adjust the Jets after their first win of the season?

Read on to see my rating for all 32 teams, plus where I think the lines present the most value early in the week.

Which lines are more than a point off their power rating projections for Week 5? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 5 power ratings from the expert who finished 2020 on an outstanding 80-59 run on NFL picks!